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The United States Men’s National Team’s path to a World Cup title just got a little bit more clear.
According to The Athletic, there is now greater than a 99% chance that the U.S. will face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 next week after the latter’s 3-1 victory over Qatar on Wednesday.
After winning Group D last week, the U.S. was set to face the third-place finisher of another group — Bosnia and Herzegovina’s victory clinched third place in Group B, and thus an all-but-confirmed date with the Stars and Stripes.
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Folarin Balogun of the U.S. celebrates scoring the second goal with teammates in Inglewood, Calif., on June 12, 2026, during the FIFA World Cup Group D match against Paraguay. (Gary Vasquez/Imagn Images)
The outlet notes that two other countries, Senegal and Austria, each have less than a 1% chance of facing the U.S. to start the knockout stage.
A tie would have opened up numerous other possibilities, but instead, the U.S. may have gotten the best-case scenario. Bosnia and Herzegovina is the 62nd-ranked FIFA program, while the United States is 14th. Meanwhile, Qatar was eliminated with the loss.
Before getting there, though, the United States does need to face Türkiye to round out group play. However, with the U.S. having already won the group and Türkiye already eliminated, the game is essentially nothing more than a scrimmage.
Christian Pulisic of the United State celebrates with teammates their first goal, an own goal scored by Paraguay’s Damian Bobadilla on June 12, 2026 in Inglewood, California. (Kiyoshi Mio/Imagn Images)
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At the risk of a jinx, the schedule is playing quite nicely for the Americans. If the U.S. advances to the Round of 16, it would face either the Group G winner or another third-place squad. Out of all the possible opponents in that round, only Belgium, which currently needs a win and help to win Group G, is ranked ahead of the United States, and hardly — Belgium is 10th in the world.
The U.S. is one of the hotter teams in this World Cup, having scored six goals in two games. It’s already tied for its most in the group stage, even with one game to play.
The Americans opened up the World Cup with a 4-1 win over Paraguay and followed up with a 2-0 victory over Australia to clinch their trip to the Round of 32. Team U.S. won the group when Paraguay defeated Türkiye later that night.
Team USA celebrates a goal vs. Paraguay in a 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images)
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The victories marked the first time the U.S. men’s national team won back-to-back World Cup games since the inaugural event in 1930.
The match against Türkiye kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, and the matchup against, in all likelihood, Bosnia and Herzegovina will be next Wednesday in the Bay Area.
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