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Russian President Vladimir Putin could attack a NATO member country in the next few years in an attempt to fragment the post-World War II organization and test Article 5, new U.S. intelligence has found, according to a report.
While U.S. intelligence had previously assessed that Putin wouldn’t launch an assault on a NATO country while still involved in the war in Ukraine, the Russian president is now looking for a victory as Ukraine makes gains, and the U.S. and Europe have seen increasing signs that he is testing the organization, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal.
That includes a drone that hit a Romanian apartment building in May and cruise missiles that landed in Poland late last month, a NATO country.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a Security Council meeting in Moscow on Friday, Aug. 7, 2026. (Alexander Kazakov/Pool Sputnik Kremlin via AP)
Article 5 of NATO states that an attack on one country is an attack on all countries.
The assessment said it would likely be a limited attack that could range anywhere from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion and would likely be focused on the Baltics or Poland.
The attack could happen any time between this fall and 2029, the assessment said.
“The question mark is how the United States would respond in that case,” Heather Conley, senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute, told the Journal. “It has always been a goal [of Russia’s] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies.”
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The assessment also comes amid claims the United States’ munitions stockpile has been depleted by arms sent to support Ukraine and due to the war in Iran.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell, however, called those claims false.
Police and forensic investigators examine the location of impact after a Russian drone struck an apartment building in Galati, eastern Romania, on May 29, 2026. The drone wounded two people, according to Romania’s defence ministry, marking the latest spillover from the four-year war into the NATO-member state. (AFP via Getty Images)
“We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the President’s choosing,” Parnell told the Journal. “Across multiple combatant commands, we have already executed successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to defend our people and our interests. Any adversary who confuses media noise with American weakness will discover the truth the hard way.”
A land incursion was deemed the least likely because it would trigger Article 5, but it’s unclear what the response would be to something like a cyberattack.
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The Polish army secures a large crater, the probable impact site of a projectile linked to overnight strikes in Ukraine, in Tarnawa-Kolonia, eastern Poland, on July 30, 2026. NATO said it was in close contact with Warsaw and blamed Russia for the missile. (TVN POLAND/AFPTV/AFP via Getty Images)
“This has always been NATO’s challenge to respond to a sub-Article Five attack, and it’s been very true that to this point, NATO allies have preferred not to escalate,” Conley told the Journal.
Fox News Digital has reached out to NATO for comment.
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Col. Martin O’Donnell, a NATO spokesman, told the Journal: “We are always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios. NATO is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate.”