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PROVO, Utah — Accused Charlie Kirk assassin Tyler Robinson returns to a Utah courtroom Tuesday for a hearing that could send his case to trial or dramatically reshape it, with a judge to weigh whether prosecutors have shown enough probable cause to support the aggravated murder charge that puts the death penalty on the table — and the suspect may finally be asked to enter a plea nearly a year after the slaying.
Robinson, a 23-year-old from Washington, Utah, is accused of firing a single shot that killed the 31-year-old father of two during a Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah, on Sept. 10, 2025.
While the defense has argued that prosecutors have not established enough probable cause to pursue aggravated murder, which carries the potential death penalty, experts tell Fox News Digital that they don’t expect Judge Tony Graf Jr. to take it off the table just yet.
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“We’re at a preliminary hearing stage, so we’re at a very low burden,” said Skye Lazaro, a Salt Lake City-based defense attorney who is not connected to the case. “It’s probable cause, and everything is taken in a light most favorable to the state.”
The court held a week-long hearing in early July, then gave both sides weeks to file briefs before Tuesday’s expected decision from Judge Graf.
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She said she expects the entire case to be bound over for trial, including the sole aggravating factor that makes the aggravated murder charge eligible for the potential death penalty — that Robinson allegedly put other people at great risk of death by shooting Kirk in a crowded place.
Greg Rogers, a former FBI agent and SWAT sniper who now teaches at Utah Valley University, said the alleged risk to the crowd should be enough to preserve the aggravating factor at this stage.
A photo of the vehicle authorities allege was being driven by Tyler Robinson the day of Charlie Kirk’s shooting. (Matthew Finn/ Fox News)
“Shooting into a crowd is always dangerous because you don’t know if someone moves, someone walks behind him,” Rogers told Fox News Digital. “There are all sorts of things that could happen in the very instant you pull that trigger.”
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Rogers said even highly trained law-enforcement snipers would consider such a shot dangerous.
“When you have a rank amateur that is shooting, it’s clearly, clearly very dangerous,” he said.
An image of shooting targets is displayed during a preliminary hearing for Tyler Robinson, who is accused in the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk, at the Fourth District Courthouse in Provo, Utah, Thursday, July 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Spenser Heaps, Pool)
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Potential plea:
Separately, a court spokeswoman said last week that Graf may or may not hold an arraignment after deciding whether there’s enough probable cause to bind the case over for trial.
If he does, it would be the first time that Robinson is asked to enter a plea.
A still image from video shows Tyler Robinson, accused in the fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, attending a preliminary hearing presided over by District Court Judge Tony Graf at the Fourth District Court in Provo, Utah, U.S., July 6, 2026. (Reuters TV/Pool via REUTERS.)
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“I would expect that they would enter not guilty pleas and move forward,” Lazaro said.
Lazaro said a different plea would likely require an agreement taking the death penalty off the table.
Bullet fragments are shown on a screen during a preliminary hearing for Tyler Robinson, who is accused in the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk, at the Fourth District Courthouse in Provo, Utah, Thursday, July 9, 2026. (Spenser Heaps/AP via Pool)
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“I think the state has been so assertive on their position about the death penalty in this case that I don’t see them doing that right now,” Lazaro said.
To attack the aggravator, Robinson’s defense argued that only a single shot was fired, from an elevated position. It traveled over the crowd, rather than through it, and it only struck Kirk.
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Lance Twiggs, Tyler Robinson’s roommate and reported romantic partner, is shown during a preliminary hearing for Tyler Robinson, who is accused in the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk, at the Fourth District Courthouse in Provo, Utah, Thursday, July 9, 2026. (Spenser Heaps/AP via Pool)
Prosecutors countered that Robinson was a bad shot, one who “seldom hit the bullseye and sometimes misses the target completely” when practicing shooting with the suspected murder weapon.
Other evidence against Robinson includes the suspected murder weapon, a .30-06 Mauser rifle that prosecutors have said belonged to his grandfather and had his DNA on it. Robinson allegedly confessed to multiple people, including his roommate and lover, Lance Twiggs, according to court documents.
An image of a rifle that prosecutors say was recovered by investigators near Utah Valley University is displayed during a preliminary hearing for Tyler Robinson, who is accused in the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk, at the Fourth District Courthouse in Provo, Utah, Thursday, July 9, 2026. (Spenser Heaps/AP via Pool)
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“This is likely as straightforward a bindover decision as this Court will ever see,” prosecutors wrote. “After admitting to several friends, including his roommate and romantic partner, that he assassinated Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University on September 10, 2025, in front of approximately 3,000 eyewitnesses, Defendant surrendered to law enforcement for that crime.”
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Tyler Robinson, accused in the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk, listens as Defense attorney Michael Burt speaks during a preliminary hearing for Tyler Robinson, the Utah man accused of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk, at the 4th District Court in Provo on Friday, July 10, 2026. (Tess Crowley/The Deseret News via Pool)
Prosecutors also presented surveillance video, ballistic evidence, an alleged handwritten confession and witness statements.
In one message to Twiggs, Robinson allegedly wrote that, “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk, and I took it.”
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A source close to the Kirk family said last week that Kirk’s widow Erika, and his parents, Rob and Kathy, all plan to attend the Sept. 1 hearing together as they did during the July hearing.
Fourth District Court Judge Tony Graf attends a hearing for Tyler Robinson, accused in the fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, in 4th District Court, on Friday, March. 13, 2026, in Provo, Utah.. (Laura Seitz/Deseret News via Pool)
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But even if the case moves forward, Lazaro said the pretrial sparring won’t end any time soon.
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“I do think we’re going to see a lot more litigation come down the road in terms of 1102 and expert-witness designations, forensic testimony on the ballistics and things like that,” Lazaro said.