This late in the season, there are a few types of series: one that doesn’t matter at all because neither team will make the postseason. Another is between one team that is still battling for the postseason.
Then there are those between two teams trying to make the playoffs or solidify their position. And, finally, there is one between two teams that are essentially locked into making the postseason, but maybe not the exact spot. That’s what we have tonight between the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs, perhaps a preview of a playoff series.
The Braves are one of the more consistent teams in baseball this season. They’ve been one of the best teams in the sport all year, and since opening day, they’ve positioned themselves as the division leader. I believe they may have lost it for a stretch when the Philadelphia Phillies were hot, but the point remains that this is one of the more complete and best teams in baseball. However, they do have a weakness: road games. They are above .500 on the road, but being 26 games above .500 overall, the majority of that is their home record.
The Atlanta Braves celebrate at home plate after a walk-off grand slam from Dominic Smith, center, in the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Saturday, March 28, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Colin Hubbard)
There really isn’t a question about whether the Braves will make the postseason; they just need to lock up the division, and they currently have a 5.5-game lead. Looking to push that division lead further is today’s starter, JR Ritchie. For the season, Ritchie is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He really doesn’t have significantly different home and road splits. However, he does have a 5.13 ERA in night games compared to 3.06 on the road. Ritchie has pitched better lately, but doesn’t go too deep into games. The Cubs haven’t seen much of him and are hitting just .167 against Ritchie.
The Cubs have also held strong with their position for much of the season. They’ve never really been able to overtake the Brewers in the NL Central, but they’ve been in control of the first Wild Card spot for much of the year. If you gave the Cubs a better rotation, they probably would be the World Series favorite, or at least up there with the Dodgers. The offense has carried this team for much of the year, specifically Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs stands on deck in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field on May 19, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images) (Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
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The pitching staff has been the major problem this season. There have been a variety of injuries, but there are also just poor performances as the Cubs have given up more homers than any other staff in the National League. One of those guys who has struggled with the long ball is Shota Imanaga. He takes the ball tonight and has already allowed 34 homers this season. The good news for him is that he doesn’t allow a lot of hits or walks, but he does allow a lot of homers. He had a stellar July, but struggled in August. His September has been good so far. He faced Atlanta once this season and allowed just two earned runs over seven innings of work.
Jun 29, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) celebrates after ending the top of the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images (Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images)
The wind is a major factor at Wrigley, but if Imanaga is not on his game, hitters can still blast the ball out of the park. Ritchie isn’t a guy I have a ton of confidence in on the mound either. The teams have been hitting well this series, and with these pitchers on the mound, I feel like there are plenty of options to get over the total. Give me the over 7.5 in this one.
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