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Last year was my worst year of baseball plays for OutKick. It wasn’t terrible by any stretch, but I never really found a footing, and I never went on a hot streak. I feel like I’m in the middle of a hot stretch or maybe at the start of one as I’ve hit five non-player prop plays in a row, and seven of my last eight plays. Baseball is typically my most profitable sport, so I hope we get our bankroll loaded this year.
The Kansas City Royals have been a bit of a disappointment this season. They are just 19-23 for the year and have lost twice as many road games as they’ve won, a 6-13 mark.
Overall, the team seems to be struggling to score. They are 22nd in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.1 runs per game. It isn’t terrible by any stretch. Their batting average isn’t terrible; they are ranked 15th in the league, which is right in the middle.
Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo delivers a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., on April 20, 2026. (Denny Medley/Imagn Images)
Their pitching hasn’t been great, but one guy who has been fairly reliable is Seth Lugo. If you’ve read my posts in the past, you know I’ve made a ton of money on Lugo starts. He is 1-2 for the season with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has made eight starts this season, and two of them were poor. One was against the Los Angeles Angels, where he allowed seven earned runs over 6.1 innings. In his last outing, he allowed four runs on seven hits over four innings.
This will be the second time he has faced the Chicago White Sox this season. In the first outing, he went 6.1 innings and allowed two runs, one earned. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a game against the White Sox in 41.1 innings of his career.
The Chicago White Sox are an early-season surprise. I live in Chicago, and I don’t think most of the fans or residents here thought they would be this good. Good, I suppose, is a relative term in this situation. They are under .500 entering today’s game at 20-21, but they do have a winning record at home at 10-9. Their offseason signing, Munetaka Murakami, has been a very good power hitter with 15 homers already this year. The team is only hitting .231 for the year, though, so there should be reason to be pessimistic about the team’s future.
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Bobby Witt Jr. slides past Cal Raleigh’s tag at home plate to score during the seventh inning at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Wash., on July 3, 2025. The Kansas City Royals won 3-2 over the Seattle Mariners. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
Wednesday’s starter for the White Sox is Noah Schultz. His numbers aren’t great at 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. However, not all of his starts have been bad. He has only made two home starts, going 10.1 innings and allowing five earned runs. I do have some concerns about his mechanics as he has already walked 16 guys in 25 innings. He is also a fly-ball pitcher, which is not ideal in Chicago, where wind can be a major factor. He has never faced the Royals.
I bet on the Royals last time Lugo took the mound against them. They lost the game 2-0. I’m running it back here as I’m not impressed with Schultz. Plus, this would give the White Sox a sweep and as bad as the Royals have been, I can’t see them allowing themselves to get swept. Give me the Royals at a very reasonable price of -120.
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Chicago White Sox’s Munetaka Murakami celebrates his two-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the seventh inning in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 22, 2026. (Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo)
Additionally, I’m taking the Lugo prop that keeps on giving – under 2.5 earned runs allowed. It is -118, and he has been so good against the White Sox in the past. I’ll back Lugo once again and hope we can get a 2-0 win for the Royals tonight.
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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024