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With all of the playoff basketball going on, it seems like I’ve forgotten all about baseball. However, that’s not the case. I’ve still been monitoring it, and we’ve collected some cash on the few bets I’ve put out on the game lately. Today, I have a really strong look at the game between the Reds and Pirates that takes place in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are one of the best teams in baseball, which is not exactly something that I expected to write this season. They made the postseason last year, but considering the lack of moves in the offseason, I just didn’t expect them to be great.
What is probably the most surprising about the Reds is just how good they have been on the road this season. Last year, there wasn’t really any good road team. Those that were above .500, with the exception of the Astros, made the postseason.
A Cincinnati Reds cap with a special logo is seen during a game against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on July 3, 2021. Cincinnati defeated Chicago 3-2. (Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
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Today, the Reds look to keep that success going with Rhett Lowder on the hill. For the year, Lowder is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has made six starts for the year, with exactly half coming at home and on the road. He has an ERA a full run lower on the road than at home, allowing five earned over 17.1 innings. Four of those runs came in one game against the Marlins. The Pirates are hitting just 2-for-11 against Lowder in their careers.
The Pirates are better than they were last year, but not exactly a successful club at the moment. They are hovering around .500 for the season, which is about what they were doing last year. The team still needs to figure out hitting, but they are doing better than last year.
They lost five straight games before this series, losing one to the Brewers and four to the Cardinals. Maybe it was just a bad stretch, or maybe it is a sign of things to come. In those games, they allowed 35 runs and scored 18. That’s an average of seven allowed and 3.6 scored.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder pitches against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on April 26, 2026. (Katie Stratman/Imagn Images)
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Trying to get the Pirates back on track is Carmen Mlodzinski. For the year, he is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. He has been substantially better at home, but most of his opportunities have come on the road. He is pitching to a 1.69 ERA and allowed just two earned runs over 10.2 innings. His lone home start saw him go six scoreless innings and allow two hits and two walks. In his history, he has allowed just three hits in 27 at-bats against the Reds.
We have two starters today who are in better situations for them. Mlodzinski has been better at home, and Lowder better on the road. These are still small sample sizes, but it is a bit encouraging. The way the Pirates have been bleeding runs makes me concerned that the under will be toast. The Reds have been a bit all over the place with scoring and runs allowed.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski throws a pitch during a game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on April 21, 2026. (Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)
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In this particular situation, I think it makes the most sense to back the under. Both teams have been playing higher-scoring games right now, but with these two hurlers, we should see fewer runs.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024