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Midterm voters gave President Trump a “shellacking” on Tuesday, akin to that delivered to Democrat Barack Obama in 2010, when Republicans picked up 63 seats in the House and seven seats in the Senate. Though yesterday’s numbers were tempered by recent gerrymandering, the election was brutal for the GOP and for President Trump.
Democrats gained control of both the House and the Senate on Tuesday. The numbers are not all in, but Democrats flipped at least seven Senate seats and more than a dozen House seats.
The results in deep red Texas, where James Talarico beat Ken Paxton to become the first Democratic senator from the Lone Star State in 33 years, were shocking but not entirely unexpected. Paxton was an unpopular candidate who carried a lot of baggage. That Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, putting a Democrat in the governor’s mansion for the first time in 32 years, was more stunning.
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Equally stunning was that Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, the controversial anti-Israel progressive running for an open Senate seat in Michigan, beat former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers.
One of the few bright spots for Republicans was Florida, where Republican Ashley Moody held her Senate seat and Rep. Byron Donalds became the first Black governor of the state.
As they did in 2010, Americans across the nation strongly rebuked the sitting president, declaring themselves unhappy with the first two years of his second term. Unfortunately for Republicans, questionable polling from many sources and President Trump’s low approval ratings turned out to be reasonably accurate predictors of the midterms.
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My view is this: as in 2010, voters in this midterm cycle pummeled the incumbent for overreaching. Trump mistook his landslide 2024 win for a mandate, as did Obama. Both presidents offended voters by going too far – in Obama’s case by trying to deliver on his campaign pledge to “change” the country. He forced through an unpopular massive health care program, turned our energy industries upside down by executive order, an effort later rejected by the courts, and ratcheted up government spending, which ushered in the Republican-led Tea Party.
In President Trump’s case, he quickly closed the border, which voters demanded after his predecessor Joe Biden recklessly allowed millions of people to enter the country illegally. But he then pursued an aggressive effort to deport all undocumented people, including those who had lived in the U.S. for years and had committed no crime other than their original illegal entry. Voters did not approve of the resulting ICE-led confrontations, which in a couple of cases led to violent outcomes. Americans, who just months earlier had demanded secure borders, soured on the president’s signature immigration policies.
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Trump’s decision to wage war against Iran, in an effort to rid that state sponsor of terror of nuclear weapons, contradicted his campaign pledge to keep us out of foreign conflicts. Even those who supported Trump’s goal of preventing the mullahs from acquiring the deadliest of weapons lost patience as oil prices moved higher.
Trump also unilaterally imposed tariffs on our trading partners, as he did in his first term, in order to level the playing field for U.S. companies. Though the White House can point to a rise in investment flowing into the U.S. and an upturn in domestic manufacturing as rewards for those measures, the president wielded his tariff weapon recklessly.
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War-related jumps in gasoline and diesel prices combined with some inflation caused by Trump’s tariffs gave Democrats the opportunity to promise they would, if elected, deliver “affordability.” It was an audacious claim, given that Joe Biden clobbered the country with a 21% jump in the cost of living during his four years in office, far surpassing what has happened under Trump. Nonetheless, Trump was punished for promising to bring prices down and failing to do so.
Democrats running in the midterms had no real, specific agenda. Though they promise to deliver “affordability,” they have not laid out how they will manage that. Some candidates have promised to implement Medicare for All to bring health care costs down, but fail to explain how they will come up with the estimated $25 to $50 trillion price tag. Some Democrats have run on reverting to Biden’s war on fossil fuels, but that will drive energy costs higher, not lower.
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Rather than laying out a specific platform, Democrats campaigned mainly on hating Donald Trump. He played into their hands by telling Americans to vote as if he were on the ballot. He was trying to drive turnout among his base, knowing that the left had fired up the opposition. But too many voters took him literally and voted against his party and him.
The president will have to take responsibility for Republican losses. His policies were on the line, and in Texas and South Carolina he pushed forward flawed candidates.
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Democrats will cheer their wins, but tomorrow they will have to bring their fractured party together to govern. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party will push policies like Medicare for All, abolishing ICE and eliminating U.S. support for Israel, which the majority of Americans may not support. They will advocate for higher taxes and bigger welfare programs, risking U.S. credit ratings and driving up interest rates and inflation.
Worse, some are calling to shut down the buildout of AI, risking U.S. dominance in the most important new technology of our time, as well as jobs, investment and economic growth. Oil and gas investment, too, is under threat from Democrats. Stock futures plunged overnight as Wall Street assessed what the election might mean.
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Several Democrats have vowed to investigate Trump officials and impeach the president yet again. Two years of ugly conflict and internal divisions will not serve their party well and could jeopardize their presidential ambitions heading into 2028.
If there is a silver lining in this harsh outcome for the GOP, it may be that Democratic dysfunction will undermine the momentum we saw Tuesday, allowing Republicans and President Trump to regroup.
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Trump has risen from the ashes before, and he may do it again.
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