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Eleven billion dollars.
Actually, more than that. Political advertising spending and reservations have now exceeded $11.6 billion, making this the most expensive election cycle for political advertising in American history.
For that kind of money, you’d think somebody might have figured out how to make groceries cheaper.
MIDTERMS UNLEASH WHAT MAY BE THE NASTIEST BARRAGE OF ATTACK ADS YET
Instead, Americans have endured months of attack ads, apocalyptic warnings and politicians insisting that civilization itself is on the ballot. Again.
As a researcher, I’ve spent much of this year studying what Americans believe, what frustrates them and, perhaps most importantly, what might motivate them to vote.
And I’ve become convinced that five words explain this election better than a thousand campaign commercials.
Affordability. Socialism. Corruption. Trump. Turnout.
Each tells us something about the American electorate. Together, they reveal something neither party should find particularly comforting.
Americans may be less interested in voting for somebody than in voting against something.
INDEPENDENT VOTERS AREN’T PICKING A POLITICAL TEAM, THEY JUST FEEL PICKED ON
And the two parties are betting on very different fears.
AFFORDABILITY
Washington has a remarkable talent for telling Americans how well they’re doing while Americans are busy wondering how they’re going to pay for everything.
Inflation is cooling! The stock market is booming! Economic growth is strong!
Wonderful.
Now explain why a family of four needs a financing plan to buy groceries and a second job to take everyone to Disney World.
Here’s what politicians keep missing: Americans don’t experience the economy as a collection of statistics. They experience it as a series of small humiliations.
FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS
Putting something back on the grocery shelf. Declining a dinner invitation. Explaining to your child why the family vacation will have to wait another year.
The economy isn’t what Washington says is happening. It’s what Americans can afford to do.
Republicans have spent much of this campaign telling voters that things are getting better. Democrats have spent it reminding them how expensive everything remains.
The Democrats have the easier argument.
But there’s a catch.
Convincing voters that Republicans haven’t made their lives better is not the same as convincing them that Democrats will.
One requires an attack ad. The other requires an actual plan.
SOCIALISM
For years, Republicans have warned that Democrats are taking America toward socialism. The accusation has been deployed so enthusiastically that you’d think Karl Marx was running for Congress in every competitive district.
Democrats often dismiss it as tired political fearmongering.
They may be making a serious mistake.
In polling I’ve been examining, the share of Republicans energized to vote against socialism has climbed from 50% to 59% in just a month.
Think about what that means.
Republicans can be disappointed in their candidates, frustrated with the economy and unhappy with their party’s performance while remaining extraordinarily motivated to vote.
Why?
Because they may believe the alternative is worse.
Disappointment makes people complain. Fear makes them act.
Democrats see socialism as an outdated Republican talking point. Many Republicans see it as a threat to the country they love.
That doesn’t mean Republicans are necessarily happy with their own party.
It means they may be willing to vote for a party they don’t particularly like to stop one they fear even more.
And that’s a potentially powerful turnout strategy hiding in plain sight.
CORRUPTION
Remember when draining the swamp was a campaign promise?
Apparently, the swamp has become a bipartisan swimming pool.
According to research from the Brennan Center and Wesleyan Media Project, nearly one-third of congressional television ads this cycle have referenced government ethics or campaign finance.
Americans increasingly suspect that the people running the country are playing by an entirely different set of rules.
Democrats have eagerly made corruption a central attack against Republicans.
But they should be careful about throwing stones from inside their own rather expensive glass houses.
Consider Alaska, where reports that Democratic-aligned operatives helped recruit a second candidate named Dan Sullivan have sparked allegations of election manipulation. Democrat Mary Peltola has denied knowing about the effort.
Whatever the ultimate findings, the controversy is a reminder that political hardball doesn’t have a party registration.
But there’s something deeper happening here.
When Americans are working harder and getting less while politicians and well-connected insiders somehow keep getting richer, every economic frustration begins to look like evidence of a rigged system.
The grocery bill isn’t simply too high. Someone must be benefiting.
Healthcare isn’t simply too expensive. Someone must be gaming the system.
You can convince voters that your opponent is corrupt without convincing them that you’re honest.
And when voters believe everybody is playing dirty, the winner may inherit the office without inheriting much public confidence.
TRUMP
Donald Trump isn’t running for Congress.
You’d never know it.
He’s crisscrossing the country, dominating headlines and rallying supporters as though his own name were printed at the top of every ballot.
And he may understand something that the conventional election narrative is missing.
Trump’s national approval ratings are weak. His base, however, remains intensely loyal.
Those aren’t contradictory facts.
They’re the defining feature of his political appeal.
Democrats have spent more than $163 million on advertising mentioning Trump since September 1, compared with roughly $11 million by Republicans.
Apparently, the Democratic Party’s most valuable campaign surrogate is the Republican president.
But Trump has an advantage of his own.
Many of his supporters aren’t Republicans who happen to like Trump.
They’re Trump supporters who happen to vote Republican.
And those voters don’t always show up when he isn’t running.
Which may explain why he’s campaigning as though he is.
His supporters may not feel particularly inspired to save the Republican Party. But they might be motivated to save Donald Trump from a Democratic Congress.
Democrats want this election to be a referendum on Trump.
Trump wants it to be a referendum on whether his supporters will defend him.
Both sides are making the same man the center of the election.
They’re just hoping voters respond in opposite ways.
TURNOUT
And that brings us to the word that could determine everything.
Turnout.
The polls tell a remarkably consistent story. Democrats have an advantage. Economic frustration is widespread. The president is unpopular.
But elections aren’t simply a measure of public opinion.
They’re a measure of who participates.
As a researcher, I believe deeply in what polling can tell us. We can measure attitudes, identify motivations and model which voters are likely to show up.
But there’s a reason we call them likely voters.
The most consequential difference in an election isn’t always between Republicans and Democrats. It’s between people who are angry enough to vote and people who are exhausted enough to stay home.
Democrats are angry about what Republicans have done.
Republicans may be frightened by what they believe Democrats will do.
Independents may be frustrated with both.
And that creates a fascinating question.
Which emotion will actually get people out of the house?
Gallup recently found that 56% of Americans have given considerable thought to this election, a record for this point in a midterm cycle.
But paying attention and participating aren’t the same thing.
A wave of Democratic enthusiasm in safely blue districts won’t change control of Congress. A smaller Republican surge in a handful of competitive races could.
And a relatively modest number of independents deciding to stay home or to show up could rewrite the headlines.
The polls can tell us where voters stand.
Tuesday will tell us which voters stand up.
And that distinction could determine the election.
Here’s what I suspect both parties will get wrong once the votes are counted.
If Democrats win big, they’ll declare that America has rejected Trumpism and embraced their vision.
If Republicans outperform expectations, they’ll insist voters have reaffirmed the president’s agenda.
Both may be mistaking a victory for an endorsement.
Voters can fire one party without falling in love with the other.
And they can stick with a party they don’t particularly like because they’re more afraid of the alternative.
That’s the paradox of American politics in 2026.
We have two parties desperately trying to win an election in a country increasingly skeptical that either deserves to.
After more than $11 billion in political advertising, thousands of polls and enough promises to wallpaper the Capitol, Americans may be sending a remarkably simple message.
They don’t want politicians to win another argument.
They want someone to make their lives better.
Tuesday will tell us who wins power.
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What happens afterward will tell us whether they deserved it.