Iran regime power players may eye Russia in Assad-style escape as US talks falter: expert

The apparent collapse of high-stakes U.S.-Iran negotiations has intensified fears that senior figures inside Tehran’s leadership could flee to Russia, seeking refuge to “continue their insurgency and undermine any new regime,” an analyst warns.

The breakdown in talks comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also told CBS’ “60 Minutes” that toppling Iran’s regime could now even be a realistic outcome.

Netanyahu noted that any collapse would dismantle the “scaffolding” of Tehran’s global terror proxy network, also potentially ending Hezbollah’s influence in the region.

“The whole scaffolding of the terrorist proxy network that Iran built collapses if the regime in Iran collapses,” Netanyahu said.

HERE’S WHAT A POST-AYATOLLAH IRAN COULD LOOK LIKE IF WAR WITH ISRAEL LEADS TO REGIME’S FALL

President Donald Trump said U.S. military strikes on Iran were so effective they eliminated much of the regime’s anticipated leadership succession bench, raising questions about who will lead the Islamic Republic. (Mohsen Ganji/AP:Office of Supreme Leader of Iran)

“I think you can’t predict when that will happen. Is it possible? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No,” he warned.

With diplomatic options perhaps exhausted and the regime’s stability in question, an expert suggests the exit strategy any leadership may be eyeing might be similar to that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Syria in 2024.

“If the situation deteriorates further, some senior figures could potentially follow a path like Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle and seek refuge in Russia,” Middle East expert Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital.

IRANIAN REGIME ELITES ALLEGEDLY MOVE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS OUT OF COUNTRY AMID SANCTIONS

While top commanders would possibly be Moscow-bound, lower-ranking figures would more likely head for Iraq or Afghanistan, Middle East expert Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency/WANA)

Golkar, a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran, noted that flight destinations would likely depend on rank.

While top commanders like Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf might head to Moscow, lower-ranking figures would more likely seek shelter in Iraq or Afghanistan, where the IRGC maintains operational connections, he clarified.

“For the most senior figures, Russia would probably be the most likely destination, again as we saw with Bashar al-Assad,” Golkar said, noting many officials have already moved wealth into “financial networks outside Iran.”

The current crisis started following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026 during the onset of Operation Epic Fury.

While his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named successor, reports continue to indicate he was severely injured in the strikes and has been absent from recent negotiations.

INSIDE IRAN’S RULING IDEOLOGY: HOW A ‘HOLY MISSION’ AND MESSIANIC DOCTRINE FUEL REGIME EXTREMISM

Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader of Iran and second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is “either dead or in bad condition,” according to Golkar. (Hamed Jafarnejad/ISNA/WANA/Reuters)

Golkar explained that the “invisible state,” or Bayt-e Rahbari, was designed to survive decapitation, while the ideological cost of fleeing for leaders would be high.

“Inside the regime’s ideological culture, leaving the country during the collapse would look like desertion,” Golkar noted.

However, as military fractures deepen and succession remains uncertain, the “Assad model” of seeking Russian protection appears increasingly attractive to those at the top.

Mojtaba, however, is “either dead or in bad condition, that he cannot send any video or voice message,” Golkar added.

“If he had died from his injuries, there was no clear natural successor. He was the continuation of the regime.”

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

“Still, the system was designed for continuity during a crisis,” Golkar said, adding that the goal is to “make sure the regime could survive even if formal institutions were damaged, leaders were killed, or civilian government stopped functioning.”

“I would describe it as a regime designed not just to govern, but always to try and survive decapitation,” Golkar added.