We have been treated to quite a few good games so far this season, even if there haven’t been a ton of top-25 match-ups. Each week we see new upsets, new revelations at different positions, and new opportunities for us to make some money. There are a ton of great games on the schedule today, but I have one circled that I really like. This afternoon we get a great game between Iowa and Michigan.
Iowa comes into the game as the 17th-ranked team in the country, and they are currently 3-0 for the year. The Hawkeyes haven’t had an overly difficult start to the season, beating Northern Illinois, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa in the three contests. Perhaps the most impressive part about the entire thing is that they’ve shut out two opponents. Their lone test of the season was against Iowa State, a team that isn’t great, but is at least decent.
Kaden Wetjen of the Iowa Hawkeyes returns a kick against the Maryland Terrapins at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium in College Park, Md., on Nov. 23, 2024. (G Fiume/Getty Images)
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The Hawkeyes now have to face a major challenge on the road in Ann Arbor. Iowa offers a fairly balanced offense with 93 passing attempts compared to 108 rushing attempts. They’ve chewed up 804 rushing yards, and unlike a lot of teams, the quarterback isn’t really driving it. The team has scored 13 touchdowns on offense this season, with nine of them coming on the ground. I don’t really expect Iowa’s offensive line to have a major advantage over the Michigan defensive line.
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Speaking of Michigan, they are the 18th-ranked team in the country, and honestly, they are lucky to be ranked that high. They are 3-0 for the season in the record books, but they absolutely should be 2-1 after whatever random clock SNAFU allowed them to beat Western Michigan 13-12 in the season opener. Either way, it went down in history as a win for Michigan. They didn’t improve much in the next week against Oklahoma.
Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) looks to throw against Maryland during the first half of an NCAA college football game in College Park, Maryland, on Nov. 22, 2025. (Stephanie Scarbrough/AP Photo)
Oklahoma is a better team than anyone that Iowa faced this season. It was a bit surprising that Michigan won this game. In the first half, Michigan was up 10-0, but Oklahoma tied it in the second half. The surprise came from the Wolverines only throwing 17 times and completing just nine of those passes for 11 yards. Bryce Underwood ended up with 18 carries and 87 yards on the ground with a touchdown, so I suppose that’s better.
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An Iowa Hawkeyes helmet lays on the field before a football game against the Indiana Hoosiers Sept. 27, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Will this game be a battle on the ground, or will one of these teams make an impact through the air? The books definitely expect this to be a low-scoring game and one that is likely to have a quick-moving clock. I would be surprised to see Michigan lose this game, but Iowa could make it close or even upset them if they can do any damage through the air. I just don’t trust Michigan to come back if Iowa can find a way to get up in this game. I’ll take the +5.5 with Iowa, and I do lean toward the over 38.5.
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