GOP fortress is under threat in one key red state, and these voters could decide whether it falls

DALLAS — A competitive Senate race is testing whether Texas is still safely red, with Black and Hispanic voters at the center of Democrat James Talarico’s path to victory.

Talarico is seeking to become the first Democrat in more than 30 years to win a statewide race in the Lone Star State.

“I definitely do think, if there’s any time for Texas to get a Democrat elected, this is the time to strike,” Mike, a military veteran from Dallas, told Fox News Digital. “I think it depends on whether the Black and brown voters come out for Talarico.”

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Texas voters Mike and Kiara discuss the importance of Black voter turnout and the possibility of Democrat James Talarico flipping the state in the Nov. 3 Senate election at the State Fair in Dallas, Texas, on Sept. 29. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

“Everyone says, ‘Hey, we are Texas and we want change here, we want change there,’” Mike added. “Well, this is an opportunity for you guys to get change. Are you going to come out and show up at the polls? He’s got all the momentum in the world. He’s got everything going for him.”

Mike’s comments reflect the challenge facing Talarico as he works to build support among Black and Hispanic voters and motivate them to turn out in November.

Texas has more Black eligible voters than any other state, with roughly 2.7 million. That puts voters in Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth and East Texas in a potentially decisive position in any Democrat’s bid to win statewide.

Former President Barack Obama’s appearance with Talarico at a May campaign stop in Austin underscored the stakes for Democrats to leverage a massive voting bloc in Texas. The party’s effort to win over Black voters could help determine whether Texas remains reliably red or becomes more competitive for Democrats in future elections.

TEXAS VOTERS HAVE PLENTY TO SAY ABOUT WHETHER LONE STAR STATE COULD TURN BLUE

Former President Barack Obama joined Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico at a campaign stop in Austin in May, as Talarico works to build support among Black voters in Texas. (Joel Angel Juarez/Pool/Getty Images)

But Talarico faces an uphill battle in uniting Democrats behind his campaign after a divisive primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas. Talarico defeated Crockett in the Democrat primary earlier this year, and the outgoing congresswoman has not endorsed his Senate campaign.

Crockett has said she supports the Democratic ticket in Texas, but her political action committee has not endorsed Talarico or campaigned for him.

Rashaun, of Forney, Texas, said the primary loss may have left some Black voters frustrated.

“Everyone was behind Jasmine,” Rashaun said. “So that’s what’s blocking, I’m going to say for my people, that was blocking their minds.”

Still, Rashaun said she plans to vote for Talarico and hopes Texas will turn blue in November.

“Yes, we are voting in November and it’s going to be Talarico,” she said. “We need Texas to flip. We can wish and hope and pray. But we need to get out and vote.”

TEXAS VOTERS HAVE PLENTY TO SAY ABOUT WHETHER LONE STAR STATE COULD TURN BLUE

Black voters are a crucial part of any Democrat’s path to statewide victory in Texas, which has the nation’s largest Black electorate. (Mark Felix/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

Mike said the election may ultimately come down to whether voters are willing to act.

“Right now it is on the Texas voters to get out and support James Talarico or sit at home if you don’t want to see that change,” he said.

Bryant, of Coppell, Texas, likewise pointed to frustration with Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, both Republicans, as a potential motivator for people to support Talarico’s candidacy.

“This is a critical election,” Bryant said. “I think we all can feel it in Texas, the need to get Greg Abbott out.”

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Bryant, a Coppell resident, shared his perspective on the closely watched U.S. Senate race and the state’s political future at the Texas State Fair in Dallas on Sept. 29, 2026. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

“It’s time for a change,” he added. “Plus, on the other side, you see how bad Ken Paxton is and his track record and just some of the things that he’s done. It’s no longer working and we need to do something different.”

Ava, a college student from Denton, said Talarico’s outreach to younger voters has helped him connect with a generation that often feels overlooked.

“I do think he’s going to pull through,” she said. “He engages with the younger community, which is important because we feel like we’re not represented.”

She added that his social media presence has also helped younger voters connect with his campaign. She first learned about Talarico after meeting him at the Texas State Fair last year and later followed him online.

“I think he’s going to flip the state.”

Ava, a college student from Denton, said Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico has resonated with younger Texas voters and could help flip the state blue. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

While Ava focused on Talarico’s appeal among younger voters, Kiara, of Dallas, said supporters must turn that enthusiasm into votes.

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“I live in Texas and I’ve been here for a really long time and it’s time for a change, a positive change,” she said. “And I think Talarico is definitely going to bring that.”

“We just have to vote,” Kiara added. “We can’t complain about the problems if you don’t want to vote to fix them.”