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One of my favorite things about sports betting is that we can do it every day. The NBA and NHL offer us another six games per day normally, and football dominates our weekends. With baseball, we get around 15 games to choose from in over 150 days of the year. There is always something to look forward to on the sports calendar. I picked out the game tonight between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers for us to enjoy.
The Diamondbacks are off to a decent start at 15-12 for the season. On the road, they have been exactly average, going 6-6 in the early stretch of the year. For the most part, Arizona has been carried by a strong offensive output. I don’t know that I would’ve expected that, considering they traded away Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez last season.
They didn’t really do anything to replace those guys in the offseason either. However, the team is hitting .255 for the year, which is good for sixth in the league. Their 27 homers are in the bottom half of the league, but they are 11th in runs scored.
Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks looks on before Game Six of the Championship Series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pa., on Oct. 23, 2023. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Merrill Kelly is starting for the Diamondbacks. He was another player who was traded away from Arizona last season, but he re-signed in the offseason. It has not been a very positive return to the team. In two starts, he is 1-1 with a 9.31 ERA and a 2.28 WHIP. He did record a win in his first outing, going 5.1 innings against the Orioles, but he still allowed five hits, two earned runs and four walks. He has been solid against the Brewers, holding them to just nine hits in 51 at-bats.
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The Brewers have been one of the better teams and franchises for years, but maybe this is a year they take a step back. They are just 14-13 for the season and are 8-7 overall at home. Seeing Milwaukee off to a slow start is a bit surprising because they’ve overcome just about everything thrown their way over the past few years. As a team, they are hitting just .231, but they have the same runs scored as the Diamondbacks. They have even fewer homers, so maybe it is just a matter of time before the power catches up?
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick throws a pitch in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis., on April 15, 2026. (Benny Sieu/Imagn Images)
Maybe this is just a bad stretch; they are 1-4 over their past five games, and 6-11 over the past 17 games. Tonight, they send out Chad Patrick to the mound. He has had a pretty strong start to the year, but is coming off of his worst outing. He also hasn’t gone overly deep into many games.
He has completed five innings just twice in his five starts. Overall, he has allowed six earned runs in 23 innings, good for a 2.35 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. There haven’t been a lot of at-bats against him from Diamondbacks’ hitters, but they’ve gone 4-for-11 against him.
We have two guys on the mound tonight who are giving up quite a few hits in the early season. Combined, they’ve allowed 36 hits in 32.2 innings. That’s a lot of traffic on the basepaths. Both of the teams are still scoring runs, and neither really relies on homers to get the runs. I think that’s usually a good reason to back an over. I’ll take on the over 8 runs in this one.
Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy reacts during the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on April 6, 2026. (Paul Rutherford/Imagn Images)
I will say both starters are capable of putting up zeroes, but given their current form, I don’t love it. I think the Brewers win this game as well. Officially, I’ll just play the over.
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