It is somewhat difficult to believe that the baseball season is almost at a close. I was considering some of the early or preseason thoughts and where they are now. I thought the Royals and Mariners would be good teams this season. I didn’t expect the Rays to be quite this good. I did have the Brewers and Cubs being successful, and in this order. I was way off on any awards, but my player props look like they are in great shape. Now we head into the last few days of baseball. Tonight the Cubs take on the Reds.
The Chicago Cubs are 85-68 for the season and currently in control of the first wild-card spot. The problem for the team is that their record is identical to Philadelphia’s, and they are just a game ahead of the San Diego Padres. They could finish anywhere from first to third, and remember that first place hosts a game instead. The Cubs have one of the best offenses in the history of their organization, and they still can’t overcome the Brewers because their pitching is among the worst in baseball.
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Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Clay Holmes delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Aug. 14, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)
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They tried to address the issues with pitching this season, but they seem to be trying to fix a leaking boat with duct tape. One of the guys who has been helpful is Clay Holmes. For the season, Holmes is 6-7 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He might be the most reliable starter in the Cubs rotation at the moment, but that doesn’t mean he’s been flawless. He has made seven starts with the Cubs and has allowed 15 earned runs, but eight of them came in one outing against the Marlins. He hasn’t faced the Reds this season, but he is holding them to a .160 average over 25 at-bats.
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Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) at bat in the ninth inning against the Texas Rangers at Great American Ball Park on April 2, 2025. (Katie Stratman-Imagn Images)
The Cincinnati Reds have to be fairly frustrated themselves about how this season has gone. Last year they snuck into the postseason, and this one will see them fall under .500. That isn’t to say there haven’t been bright spots for the team. Sal Stewart has looked great for them, hitting 32 homers and 109 RBIs. Elly De La Cruz has continued to establish himself as one of the best in the game. Even the pitching staff from Cincinnati has some good pieces.
Arguably, the best pitcher for Cincinnati this season is tonight’s starter, Chase Burns. For the year, Burns has racked up 15 wins against just three losses. He has a 2.80 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while striking out 181 strikeouts. He doesn’t qualify for the ERA or WHIP rankings because most of his starts don’t see him go overly deep into games. He has only completed six or more innings in 12 of 28 starts this season. He has been superb at home with a 2.09 ERA in 13 starts. The Cubs faced him once this season and got two earned runs off of him over 5.2 innings.
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A general view of Great American Ball Park during the seventh inning of the game between the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds. in Cincinnati, Ohio, on April 14, 2026. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
This is a game that I think we see runs as tough to come by. Burns is a really talented pitcher, and Holmes is also a good pitcher. You don’t want a fly ball pitcher for games at Great American Ball Park, and Holmes is a ground ball guy. I think this is a good game to take the under through five innings. The problem is that you can’t trust either bullpen, so give me under 4.5 through five innings.
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