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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says he prepared for the “extreme tail risk” that the U.S. would invade Canada amid recent trade tensions.
Carney made the statement in an interview with the New York Times published on Wednesday, saying he weighed the possibility after President Donald Trump began referring to Canada as the 51st state.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case,” Carney told the Times, arguing that “it would be irresponsible not to.”
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Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, speaks during a news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on Thursday, March 27, 2025. Carney says Canada will fight back against President Donald Trump’s trade war and his tariffs on the auto sector, but he did not outline any new retaliatory measures against the US on Thursday. (David Kawai/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada have continued to escalate over the past year, with Trump levying increased tariffs and Canada responding in kind.
Carney admitted in a video statement earlier this month that Canada had come to overly rely on its economic relationship with the U.S. in recent decades.
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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is greeted by President Donald Trump as he arrives at the West Wing of the White House, Tuesday, May 6, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
“The past 40 years has been a period of deeper economic integration with the United States. Truth is, it was easy business, but it meant we relied too much on one economic partner. It’s clear that time is over,” Carney said.
“This is why our plan, since I came into office, has been development and diversification, not denial, waiting to go back to some good old days, and not continued dependence,” he added.
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Trump last week dismissed reports that Canada may be joining the European Union as an associate member, saying the U.S. could impose heavy tariffs on Europe if he believed such a “laughable” move was made with “bad intention.”
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting held in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 20, 2026. (Harun Ozalp/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“I think it’s laughable,” Trump responded. “If they do that, if I think it’s at all a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things.”
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“If Europe does that with a bad intention – if it’s a good intention, that’s fine – if it’s a bad intention, we’ll put very heavy tariffs on Europe,” he added.