We head back to the diamond now that we have just one football game on the agenda. With only about 12 games remaining for most teams, we are squarely locked into the final lap of the playoff race. As you’d expect, there are a lot of teams that are pretty much out of it at this point, and a few that still have an outside shot at making it to the postseason. Tonight, the Marlins and Diamondbacks, who both have a slim chance of making the postseason, square off.
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The Miami Marlins have a few things left to play for this postseason. They are currently still alive in the postseason race, but going 3-7 over their past ten games has hindered any real possibility of making it. They are 7.5 games back of the final spot in the postseason, which means they need to overcome the Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Padres in 12 games to win the final spot. This can be looked at as a stepping stone year, but you’d have to have confidence that the Marlins will do something in the offseason to further advance the club.
Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara pitches during the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif., on April 29, 2026. (Kiyoshi Mio/Imagn Images)
Personally, I think they are likely to trade away guys instead of signing someone to help them. That’s pretty normal for the Miami franchise, though. One guy who they have an option on, and I assume they will pick up, is tonight’s starter, Sandy Alcantara. He had some strong moments for the team this season with a 13-10 record, 3.78 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP. He has struggled a bit on the road with a 4.32 road ERA. It has been a rough stretch for him, though, as he has allowed 15 earned runs over the past three starts. Collectively, the Diamondbacks have hit .207 against him in 82 at-bats.
The Arizona Diamondbacks still have hope for this postseason run. Their hope is a bit more realistic than that of their opponent. They are just 2.5 games behind the Padres, and they have their final three games of the season against their divisional foes. The Diamondbacks have been pretty reliable to bettors and have looked great most of this season. Their offense is sharp, and their pitching staff doesn’t have a ton of names that stand out to you, but they do get the job done.
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Arizona Diamondbacks second base Ketel Marte (4) runs back to the dugout against the Miami Marlins in the first inning at Chase Field on June 27, 2025. (Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images)
Diamondbacks star spotted at casino during team’s game after no-showing to stadium earlier in the week
Tonight, they have one guy who has a history of being one of the best in the game: Corbin Burnes. This is just his second start since returning from injury, but should the Diamondbacks make it to the postseason, he will likely have four starts total under his belt and be in a good position to help the club. In his start against the Royals, Burnes went three innings, allowed two hits, two walks, and had two strikeouts. He didn’t allow a run. This was his first action in over a year, so that’s good news. The Marlins have only had three hitters see him in 10 at-bats, and he has allowed just two singles.
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Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Corbin Burnes delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., on Sept. 8, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)
This is not a game that I can trust the Marlins to win, unfortunately. They are playing some pretty poor baseball right now, and Alcantara has looked rough. He’s had a lot of good stretches, but he’s also had some really tough outings, especially lately. The Diamondbacks have a slightly better bullpen, and I think their offense is better, so I’m going to take the Diamondbacks in this one. I do have a slight lean to the under, if that helps at all.
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