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Backs are against the wall. It is do or die. Win, or go home. Anything can happen. Whatever your favorite little saying is for a Game 7 applies here. The Philadelphia 76ers, a team that barely made it into the postseason, has pushed the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics to the brink of elimination. It is Game 7, so we have to bet on it; those are the rules.
Philadelphia has won two games in Boston already, and now they need to take three of four in the series in order to advance. In the last two games, the 76ers have looked great. They have held the Celtics to just 97 points in Game 5 and 93 points in Game 6.
Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during the Eastern Conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs at TD Garden in Boston, Mass., on May 14, 2023. (Brian Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images)
In fact, in all three of their wins, the 76ers have held the Celtics to under 100 points. They aren’t exactly known for their defense, but it certainly looks like that’s where their success is this postseason.
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On offense, the team looks very crisp. Tyrese Maxey has been able to get to his spots and has shot the ball very well this series. VJ Edgecombe has looked like a veteran instead of a rookie. Joel Embiid’s return has been a shot in the arm for the squad, and Paul George has been very effective.
I won’t say that Philadelphia has been overly great from deep, which is actually a very good indicator that they can win Game 7.
The Celtics, in the losses, have obviously shot poorly, but it is very surprising just how bad it has been. They only shot 29% from deep in Game 6, and their free throws were just 9-for-16. Jaylen Brown, usually very reliable, went just 2-for-6 from the charity stripe. Celtics starters combined to score just 46 points. The majority of these games have been very one-sided, with the winning team dominating. Only one game was decided by 10 points or fewer.
Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics reacts after defeating the Miami Heat 104-103 in game six of the Eastern Conference Finals at Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., on May 27, 2023. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
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Boston is one of those teams that tends to live and die by the three, and unfortunately for their fans, they’ve been dying the past two games. You would like to assume that returning home will give them a chance to get back to some familiar sight lines.
Additionally, it isn’t normal for the team to struggle like this for so long. The key to their success might not be Brown or Jayson Tatum, but may lie with Derrick White, who has underperformed in this series. He looked a bit better in the Game 6 loss, scoring 11 points, shooting 50% from deep, and recording three steals.
There are two pathways to this game, and I think the spread and total are extremely correlated in this game. First, for the 76ers to win the game, they will need to keep the Celtics’ scoring in check again. Holding Boston to under 100 points again seems like a big challenge. But, if this game goes under, the 76ers will cover the spread.
An overall view of TD Garden before the game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics during Round 2 Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs on May 1, 2023, in Boston, Mass. (David Dow/NBAE/Getty Images)
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If the game goes over, the Celtics will win, and I’m guessing it will be a blowout game. Boston has the capability of destroying teams. The Celtics have played in four Game 7s since 2022. They crushed the Bucks 109-81, beat the Heat 100-96, dominated the 76ers 112-88, and lost the most recent to the Heat in 2023, 103-84. The Celtics went 3-1 with two dominating wins.
The lone loss was ugly and at home to the Heat. It is hard to believe the Celtics will lose three of four at home, but the 76ers look great. I’m laying off the spread, but I think the Celtics cover. I also think this game goes over. 206.5 is too low of a total, and I expect at least one of these teams to get to 110 points.
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