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Americans’ pocketbooks could take yet another hit ahead of the November election as President Donald Trump escalates his trade war with Canada — with five key battleground states likely facing the most fallout.
Billions of dollars in U.S. exports are exposed to the northern neighbor’s retaliatory tariffs that targets American goods across a range of industries. The outcome? Costs are expected to continue rising for U.S. businesses and consumers in the weeks leading to the must-win midterms.
Affordability remains a prominent issue for voters, while tariffs remain a cornerstone of Trump’s economic agenda. He claims the strategy will result in more domestic manufacturing and pressure trade partners into agreements that are more beneficial for American industries and consumers. But the result so far has been an increase in prices for the average American family.
“American manufacturers or American businesses who rely on Canadian inputs are going to start to feel the pain right in the lead up to going to the ballot box,” David Clement, Policy Director of the free market nonprofit Consumer Choice Center, told Fox News Digital.
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Trump has repeatedly defended tariffs as a key pillar of his economic agenda, saying they will bring manufacturing back to the United States and generate revenue as Republicans seek to hold Congress in the November elections. (Mike Kropf/Getty Images)
Clement identified Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as among the states most exposed to negative fallout, based on their current trade with Canada and the goods targeted by the tariffs.
“Ohio is by far the most vulnerable state in terms of exposure from the Canadian retaliatory tariffs,” Clement said, estimating roughly $2.3 billion in exports to Canada are exposed.
He pointed to machinery, transportation products, minerals and metals as major sources of that vulnerability.
In Michigan, the impact is particularly evident in the auto industry, where supply chains are deeply intertwined with neighboring Ontario.
“Most Americans don’t know that a single component on a U.S.-assembled vehicle can cross the border upwards of eight times before it’s actually completed,” Clement said.
“When you are tariffing automotive parts going across the border each way,” he added, “it really gums up the very intertwined supply chain for cars between Michigan and Ontario.”
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Tariffs have been a cornerstone of President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, with the president arguing they encourage domestic manufacturing, protect American industries and generate federal revenue. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)
Those costs can eventually make their way to consumers, Clement argued.
Pennsylvania also faces significant exposure. Clement said about 25% of the state’s exports go to Canada, much of it machinery and equipment, putting just under $1.8 billion in exports at risk.
What the trade fight means politically is less certain. Clement argued that even a change in congressional control after November would not necessarily bring the tariffs to an end.
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The trade fight has escalated under Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, with negotiations breaking down and both countries imposing new measures targeting each other’s goods. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
“The idea that Canadian retaliatory tariffs are going to swing the midterms in the Democrats’ favor and then all of a sudden create an end to the trade war is a fantasy,” Clement said.
He cited the legislative hurdles to reversing presidential trade policy and noted that the Biden administration kept a number of tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term.
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Still, Clement argued the timing could matter, with Canada’s retaliatory tariffs already in place as the midterms approach.
“Cost of living, cost of goods, cost of doing business is such an important factor for Americans who are going to be casting a ballot,” he said.