Shlomo Brom, former IDF Director of the Strategic Planning Division in the Planning Branch of the General Staff, believes a ceasefire is now impossible because Gantz’ departure from the War Cabinet will make Netanyahu more dependent on the far-right figures in his government.
Mr Brom told Express.co.uk: “Netanyahu still holds a majority in the Knesset with his extreme right-wing and ultra-orthodox partners, but his dependence on them will be total and he will lose the flexibility and ability to maneuver between them and the more moderate elements in the government.
“This means that the already low probability of a ceasefire deal drops to zero, resulting in growing pressures on Netanyahu from the Israeli public and from Israel’s allies.
“It might create a momentum that will lead to the crumbling of his coalition, but it is far from being certain.”
US President Joe Biden unveiled the latest draft of a ceasefire proposal earlier this month.
It includes the exchange of Palestinian prisoners with Israeli hostages, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes, and a plan to reconstruct the strip.
But Mr Brom adds that the hostages provide the only leverage for Hamas, making it unlikely that they will be released unless a permanent end to the fighting is secured.
He said: “The only real card Hamas has is the hostages because their fighting capabilities are consistently eroding.
“They are not going to, in my humble opinion, give up hostages without a deal that will include total ceasefire unlimited in time and withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, which this government cannot accept.
“Hamas will continue to hope that the internal pressure in Israel, and the external pressures on Netanyahu, will be more effective without the protection he got from the moderates in his government. The conclusion is that the war will drag on.”
Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis on October 7. Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has since killed more than 37,000 Palestinians.
