In the late afternoon on Friday, around 18:20 local time (16:20 BST), the IDF launched one of its most devastating attacks to date on Beirut. The target we are assured was the Hezbollah headquarters in the suburb of Dahieh, a known terrorist stronghold, hidden beneath residential buildings. It’s now clear that the headquarters is no more.
The Israeli military says it carried out a series of precision strikes against their enemy in the Lebanese capital. Social media coverage showed a series of massive explosions in what appears to be a densely populated area, followed by the usual post-strike chaos of panicking civilians racing for cover and wailing ambulances and recovery vehicles. It has become an all too familiar sight in the Middle East in past decades.
IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a video statement that the terrorist HQ was “intentionally built under residential buildings” in the area “as part of Hezbollah’s strategy of using Lebanese people as human shields”.
In this he is probably correct; Hezbollah, like their allies Hamas in Gaza, has little regard for the population in which it skulks.
He added that “Israel is doing what every sovereign state in the world would do if they had a terror organisation that seeks their destruction on their border, taking the necessary action to protect our people so that Israeli families can live in their homes, safely and securely.”
And now the Israeli military is saying that it has managed to eliminate Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah plus several other leadership figures in their massive air strike. If proven correct this is yet another coup. Nasrallah was credited with turning the terrorist organisation into the military and political power it is today.
That power has now been greatly degraded by the exploding pagers, the aerial assault, and the targeted assassination of its leadership.
What is also clear is that the security of Hezbollah is comprehensively compromised at every level. If it were not then the IDF would not be able to strike with such devastating accuracy. They appear to have complete mastery of the intelligence spectrum, leaving Hezbollah with nowhere to hide.
We all now wait to see what might happen next. As I have written recently, don’t be surprised if IDF ground troops move into southern Lebanon to root out the terrorist remnants and push them back north over the Litani River, where their ability to influence northern Israel with their missiles will be severely curtailed.
More interesting will be how Iran reacts. By attacking their ally Hezbollah so fiercely and successfully Israel has thrown down the gauntlet to Tehran, their major enemy in the region. Since the Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel back in April they have remained relatively silent, and the most recent appeals by Hezbollah for them to do something have been rejected.
But this latest development is something else altogether. What they are witnessing is the dismantling of their major ally in the Middle East by their avowed enemy. Will they be content to continue to stand on the sidelines and just watch, or will they be spurred on to take direct action?
At this stage in the proceedings I don’t think anybody really knows, perhaps even the Iranians themselves. To do nothing risks a huge loss of prestige and reputation, to act risks bringing the wrath of Israel and the USA to bear down on them.
Once again we’ll have to wait and see, but I don’t think we’ll have to wait too long. There is now a very real possibility of a more general conflagration breaking out in the Middle East, but it’s still not too late to draw back from the precipice. Will wiser heads prevail?
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
