Ukraine faces challenges that are “almost insurmountable” in the face of a growing military initiative from Russia, according to a retired British Army officer.
And, amid uncertainties created by the potential election as president of the US in around months time of Donald Trump, who is against providing further military support to Kyiv, as well as war fatigue developed in the West, Ukraine doesn’t have much time left to resist to Vladimir Putin’s troops, he suggested.
Colonel Richard Kemp CBE believes the billions worth of Western military aid set to come Ukraine’s way may be able to “blunt” a Russian offensive widely expected to be carried out in late spring or summer.
However, even if the delivery of artillery and weapons is fast, Colonel Kemp does not believe Kyiv will be able to “go back onto the offensive” in the same way he did in the autumn of 2022.
In a comment piece for The Telegraph, he wrote: “One reason for this is that Russia has achieved air supremacy in many areas while ground based air defences will remain inadequate.
“Another is that a war-weary Ukraine simply doesn’t have enough troops and after more than two years hard fighting seems reluctant to launch the major mobilisation it needs.”
This week, Ukraine suspended consular services for its male citizens aged 18 to 60 as part of a drive to increase the number of people joining the frontline.
In recent weeks, in another push to beef up numbers, Kyiv lowered the age of mobilisation from 27 to 25.
The retired army officer went on to note that Russia has been growing its wartime economy for several months and can count on “huge force levels” that the leadership in the Kremlin is “willing to sacrifice to achieve Putin’s goals”.
He added: “If Moscow is able to achieve significant success in the summer, perhaps including taking Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city, there will be no appetite for more Western spending come the winter.
“This bleak outlook will be worsened by the added uncertainty surrounding general elections in both the US and UK.
“It looks like, as in previous wars, Russia will have begun badly but finished well through a level of determination so badly lacking among Ukraine’s allies in the West.”
The US Congress approved this week a military aid package for Ukraine worth nearly £50billion. But it took lawmakers in Washington several months to pass the bill, a delay which contributed to Ukraine’s losing the key frontline city of Avdiivka in February, according to the Biden Administration.
On April 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged his international allies to act quickly in their support for Ukraine.
He wrote on X: “The key now is speed. The speed of implementing agreements with partners on the supply of weapons for our warriors. The speed of eliminating all Russian schemes to circumvent sanctions. The speed of finding political solutions to protect lives from Russian terror.
“Every leader who does not waste time is a life saver. Every state that knows how to act quickly safeguards the rules-based world order. I thank everyone in the world who helps our people restore normal life after the Russian strikes. I thank everyone who helps our warriors defend the cities and villages of Ukraine from Russian evil.”
Colonel Kemp’s warning came as Russian military bloggers have claimed their country’s troops have taken over Ocheretyne – although Kyiv has conceded only a few buildings and the southern part of the town have been conquered.
