Vladimir Putin is all but assured of winning the ongoing Russian presidential election, which international observers have described as neither free nor fair.
Amid fears of vote rigging, one intelligence analyst noted the attention should be placed not on the obvious winner of the election but on the percentage of votes he will officially receive.
Kervin Aucoin, founder of private intelligence company Aucoin Analytics, LLC and host of This Week Explained podcast, noted Putin’s approval rating in recent years has consistently been reported at 80 percent or over – as found also by non-governmental polling organisation Levada Center.
He told Express.co.uk: “It’s essential to recognise that this figure doesn’t necessarily predict the final election outcome. Still, it does carry significant weight in terms of public sentiment.
“I anticipate Putin’s share of the vote to fall between 70 percent and 75 percent. Anything below this range would likely be perceived as a loss.
“Conversely, anything exceeding 80 percent would provide Putin with additional leverage to pursue the expansion of the Russian Federation.”
A report by independent Russian news outlet Meduza claimed, citing sources close to the Russian regime, that the Kremlin has “decided [Putin] should win with at least 80 percent of the vote”.
In order to make this possible, a source cited by the news publication claimed the true supporters of Putin have been mobilised, alongside administrative and corporate resources. The use of electronic voting, introduced for the first time in Russia this year and used by Putin to cast his vote, is also to be used, the source claimed.
While, given the nature of the election, Putin is likely to achieve a record result, Mr Aucoin said he will closely monitor the voter turnout to try and gauge the real sentiment in Russia about the elections.
He said: “The Central Election Commission in Russia reports approximately 112.3 million eligible voters within Russia and Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, along with an additional 1.9 million eligible voters residing abroad. Russia aims for both substantial turnout and robust support for Putin to achieve its expansionist objectives.”
As noted by Mr Aucoin, the Kremlin opened polling stations also in Russian-occupied regions of eastern Ukraine, which Moscow claims to have annexed following sham referendums in September 2022. According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, previous Russian votes held in these areas were conducted in a coercive environment.
While Russian troops continue to fight in Ukraine, two years into the illegal invasion of the eastern European country ordered by Putin, the Kremlin is believed to be eying other territories, with experts fearing Moldova, Poland and the eastern flank of NATO could all become the next targets.
Yulia Navalnya, widow of opposition leader Alexei Navalny who died in mid-February in a prison colony at the Arctic Circle, has urged Russian voters to come together in the “Noon against Putin” initiative.
This protest, created by Russian opposition politician and former St. Petersburg lawmaker Maxim Reznik, is inviting people opposing Putin’s regime to flood the polling stations all at the same time – at 12pm on March 17 – and vote for any other candidate but the Russian President.
But Mr Aucoin believes others opposing Putin may decide to not cast their ballot and send a signal by keeping down the turnout.
He said: “This emphasises the importance of the turnout numbers. If we observe an increase in abstentions, it could signal a shift in Russia’s political landscape.”
Freedom House, a global democracy watchdog, stated Putin’s previous successful electoral campaigns have been in part the result of “preferential media treatment, numerous abuses of incumbency, and procedural irregularities during the vote count”.
This weekend, Russians only have four candidates to choose from – and none of the three men opposing Putin have criticised him during the electoral campaign nor have supported policies drastically different from what the Kremlin is carrying out.
