SUNSPORT’S Weekend Wager is back to give you the best set of betting tips for this weekend’s Premier League action.
The title race may be over, but the Champions League race is only hotting up as some blockbuster fixtures hit the calendar.
7
First of all we have the best two teams in the country facing off at Anfield as Arsenal look to restore some pride and end their season on a high on their visit to champions Liverpool.
Elsewhere, Newcastle face Chelsea in what could be a pivotal match for the top five.
And Bournemouth host Aston Villa as Unai Emery’s team look to claw their way into the Champions League spots.
We have all that and more on this weekends edition as host, Will Pugh, is joined by football journalist, Kweku Afari, and Betfair betting expert, James Mackie.
Liverpool vs Arsenal – Sunday, 4:30pm
Kweku: Mohamed Salah to score anytime. 7/5
“When I was looking at this, I could not believe the odds.
“They’re aiming for my bet. Mo Salah to score anytime, 7-5.
“Let’s remember Salah is the top goal scorer in the Premier League, has scored 28 league goals this season, and also leads the league in assists.
BEST ONLINE CASINOS – TOP SITES IN THE UK
“He is by far the best player in the league and the man for the big occasion as well.
“The stats back it up, Salah has scored 11 Premier League goals against Arsenal, only netting more against Manchester United, 13 goals, and Tottenham, 12 goals.
“So, you know Salah, when it’s a big occasion, especially off the back of last week where it was a bit disappointing, you know it’s going to turn up for Liverpool.
Will: Draw. 15/8
7
“I was racking my brains about this game, and it’s so hard to call with not loads riding on it. Obviously a little bit of pride. Arsenal will be sort of mentally deflated.
“So if I had to pick, I’d say maybe Liverpool, you know, big party atmosphere, as there will be at Anfield. But I just couldn’t pick a winner. So I’ve gone draw 15-8. I know it’s not very adventurous, but I just couldn’t see anything anywhere else result-wise.
“Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 14 home games against Arsenal in all competitions, won seven and drawn seven since a 2-0 defeat in the Premier League in September 2012.
“So that tells me Arsenal probably aren’t going to win. Arsenal, though, are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against Liverpool with two wins and three draws, which is their longest run without defeat against Liverpool since a run of eight between October 2007 and April 2011.
“This is also the third time Arsenal are facing the Prem champions in a season once the title has already been confirmed.
“And the last two was a 1-0 draw with Man Utd in 2012-13 and actually beat Liverpool in 2019-20.”
James: 2+ shots for Virgil van Dijk. 12/5
7
“I’ve looked down at the, what a seriously special player, Virgil van Dijk. And he scored two in his last four. So when you look at stuff like that, you’ve got to think, right, can he keep going?
“He’s just an absolute menace off corners. And another stat to back up this bet is it’s Virgil van Dijk to have two plus shots in the game at 12-5. It was 4-9 for just one, 12-5 for two.
“He scored two in his last four, but he’s had two plus shots in three of those four games. So the stats are there. He’s been doing it already.
“Another thing I was looking at here as well is that Arsenal conceded 39 per cent of their goals in the Premier League this season from set-piece situations. That’s the most from any side in the Premier League.
“But yeah, look, the stats back it up. You’re getting 12-5 about Van Dijk. He’s going to go for every corner.
“Also, it’s the main man’s 300th Premier League game on Sunday. So look, what better way than going, give me the 12-5, two plus shots.
Speaker 2: So that’s the hidden value for me there.”
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa – Saturday 5:30pm
Kweku: Emiliano Martinez 5+ saves. 11/4
7
“The stats back this up as well. Bournemouth have had more shots following a high turnover than any other side in the Premier League this season, with 65.
“Their 65 shots and eight goals from high turnovers this season are the most of any of their top five campaigns, which is eight, which suggests the high press from [Andoni] Iraola, the fact that Bournemouth are up and at them, converts into chances.
“And I think that Martinez, like I say, will be a very busy man.
“And only Salah with 121 and Cole Palmer with 120 shots have had more shots than Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo, who’s had 118 this season.
“So it suggests that Bournemouth do create chances. They don’t always take them.
“But the fact that there’s a world-class shotstopper in Martinez in goal for Aston Villa and Bournemouth all have a lot of shots, I think Martinez, five or more saves, 11/4. I like it.
Will: Draw HT, Bournemouth win FT. 11/2
7
“Bournemouth have scored more goals in second-half stoppage time than any other team in the Premier League this season, while only Southampton, on ten, have conceded more than Aston Villa have in that time.
“Villa have conceded eight in second-half stoppage time. Bournemouth have scored eight in second-half stoppage time. So they’ve got the stamina. They can go deep into games.
“Bournemouth lost 1-0 at home to Aston Villa in their first ever Premier League match in August 2015. But since then, the Cherries are unbeaten in three at home to Villa, scoring exactly two goals in each of those games.
“That’s two victories and one draw. So they’ve got a good record against them, they’ve got used to playing them. And Bournemouth have won seven of their 13 Premier League games against teams starting the day above them in the table this season.
“They’ve drawn three and lost three of the other ones that they didn’t win, which is the highest win rate of any side to play more than one such game this term.
“So more than half of their games, they’ve played against teams above them in the league at time of kick-off. They have come out victorious. So I did really like that. I do give Bournemouth a chance. I think they’re getting a bit underrated this season.”
James: Ollie Watkins to score or assist. 11/10
7
“I think this is the bet of the weekend.
“When you’re getting odds against about top strikers in the Premier League, either scoring or assisting, you’ve got to have a look and take advantage. And Ollie Watkins is the man that I’m looking at here.
“Watkins has been directly involved in five goals in his four Premier League starts against Bournemouth.
“One goal, four assists. He’s four assists against the Cherries, the most against any opponent he’s got.
“Absolutely superb.
“And like I said, when you’re looking, not even just to score, to assist as well, and you get an 11-10 about their talisman up top, who’s bagged all season, I think it’s a brilliant bet.
Ascot, Victoria Cup – Saturday, 2:40pm
7
James: Qirat 5/1, Roi de France 6/1, Gleneagle Bay 7/1, No Retreat 7/1, Myal 8/1
“It’s Qirat at the top of the market of 5-1. This horse for Rafe Beckett, Ross O’Ryan’s one of the best jockeys I think around at the moment. He’s doing the steering.
“This horse has got some proven form already at Ascot in an 18-runner handicap. But what I like from this horse is I think we’ve got a group horse in a handicap here.
“So you see horses that are running against lesser horses. They’ve got a bit bigger weight. They’re going to go on to deeper waters later on in the season.
“It’s his first run of the season. He’s racing off a mark of 99. He’s won off a mark of 92. He’s finished second last twice off marks of 97 and 98.
“Back at Ascot on the straight where he’s already done it, finished second in a really good handicap.
“I think at 5-1 off what, five or six pounds higher. I think he’s going to go on to deeper waters. And I think 5-1, I think he’s got a cracking chance in this handicap, Qirat.
18+ | GambleAware.org | Please Gamble Responsibly