Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, one of Ukraine’s top military officials, has summed up Kyiv’s crisis on the battlefield, saying: “Our problem is very simple – we have no weapons.” The blunt warning from the deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry comes as Russia continues to bombard the Ukrainian frontline.
Speaking with The Economist, Major-General Skibitsky was unusually frank about Ukraine’s prospects in the war. He admitted that “it is probably a matter of time” before the key frontline city of Chasiv Yar falls to the Russians. Taking Chasiv Yar would allow Russian forces to advance through other towns and cities in the Donetsk region.
The deputy spy chief added that Russia would make huge strides in the war this month. The senior Kyiv official revealed that Russian troops have been ordered to “capture something” for Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9 or, failing that, for Putin’s visit to Beijing a week later.
After Chasiv Yar’s eventual capture, the Ukrainian frontline could collapse. The deputy spy chief said that the main Russian offensive would start in late May and early June, with Moscow planning to seize and fully occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as well as the crucial Kharkiv and Sumy areas.
The prediction echoes the commander of the Ukrainian national guard, Oleksandr Pivnenko, who warned recently that Russia was preparing “unpleasant surprises” and quietly recruiting 30,000 people a month.
The Ukraine official said that Russia was exploiting the lack of military resources in Ukraine, amid delays in Western military aid. The spy chief said: “Our problem is very simple: We have no weapons. They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.”
He also said that Russia was no longer a chaotic military force, as seen in the early days of the war. Instead, the Kremlin forces are now operating as a “single body, with a clear plan, and under a single command”.
Ukraine’s devastating losses on the battlefield prompted Maj-Gen Skibitsky to concede he no longer saw a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield, despite billions of military from the West.
Instead, he predicted that peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow could start in late 2025, since Russian arms production could plateau early the following year due to a shortage of supplies.
He said both sides were currently vying for “the most favourable position” ahead of possible negotiations in a year and a half.
This comes as Lord Cameron, the foreign secretary, met Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, in Kyiv.
He confirmed that Ukraine has a right to use British-supplied weapons to strike inside Russian territory.
Russia condemned what it called “another very dangerous statement”.
During his visit, Lord Cameron also said the UK would provide £3bn per year for as long as necessary.
