Outside a polling station on election day in the US swing state of Wisconsin a grandmother is reluctant to tell the Express who she plans to vote for.
Looking around she drops her voice to a whisper. Leaning her head a little closer she stated: “I’m voting for Donald Trump.”
“I have a son with four children and he just can’t afford to improve his house in the way he should. Under Trump things were better,” she added with a nod of the head.
Told like a dirty secret that required instant and significant justification, her reluctance to broadcast voting intentions could be underwood given the district was quite heavily Democrat.
But it made me wonder; how many of these silent Trump voters are out there?
For both the media and people in general, loud visible trends are far easier to identify and understand than subtle, quiet undercurrents.
But in politics this phenomenon should not be underestimated, especially when it comes to votes for right-wing parties.
Ahead of the British General Election of 1992 polls had all predicted the Labour Party would win.
However, these projections proved to be totally wrong and the Conservative Paty won a conclusive majority.
It turned out that voters had told pollsters one thing about who they intended to vote for in pre-election questions and a when the day came did something completely different.
The phenomenon has become known as the ‘shy Tory factor’ and there are many examples in the years that followed of similar trends.
Speaking to the two sides of the US Election it’s clear that Democrats are feeling far more confident than their opponents.
“They’re just saying it’s close because they need to make sure people turn out to vote,” a campaigner told me in Millwaukee, “Harris is going to win easily.”
“…when Harris wins. And she will win,” said another, “they’re going to be unhappy.”
Republicans on the other hand were much more circumspect many described it as being “close” or a “nail-biter.”
That is with the exception of a man with a giant Donald Trump display in his yard.
“I think it’s going to be a landslide” he said, “he’ll win every single one of the states.”
But as America takes to the polls today, you have to wonder whether the shy-Trump factor will prove significant.
“I’m not a psychiatrist [but] I think there are folks who are hesitant because of the potential angry response from [those] voting the other way,” Dr Christopher Pagel told us in a small town in southern Wisconsin.
“It feels like there’s more vandalism of Trump signs than there are on the other way.
“There’s a higher chance of there being a verbal altercation if folks are announcing [who they are voting for. None of my friends wear any Trump paraphernalia in [the Democrat-heavy area of] Dane County just because we don’t want the confrontation.
“I know folks who have a Maga hat they’ll put it on their mantelpiece kind of facing away from the street, trying to keep it a little a little secretive.”
Pagel believed that this silent block of voters would have an impact on the election that may well be being underestimated.
“I guarantee you there’s going to be a disparity between the percentage of folks who have yard signs versus the results in that county,” he added.
“I am confident there are a lot of Trump supporters who have nothing in their yard, don’t have any bumper stickers on the car and they’re just quietly going to vote how they want.
“In my neighborhood, it’s about 4 to 1 Harris versus Trump signs. But it’ll be interesting to see what the results for my for my little village are.”
At this stage, it’s all just wishful thinking and speculation. We’ll know when the votes start to be tallied whether the silent Trump voters have raised their voices in the space it matters most: the voting booth.
