The two main reasons man tipped as Germany's new leader will clash with Donald Trump

The man tipped to become Germany’s next leader may find himself on a collision course with Donald Trump over trade and defence, an expert has suggested.

Friedrich Merz is favourite to replace Chancellor Olaf Scholz after voters in the European Union’s largest economy and most populous country head to the polls on Sunday (February 23).

Pre-election polls put Mr Merz’s party in the lead with support of about 30%, ahead of the far-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on around 20%. Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats lag further behind.

Mr Merz, 69, is a pro-business, socially conservative career politician who would face a series of enormous challenges from day one if he were to become chancellor.

Domestically, Mr Merz has focused much of his campaigning on migration, putting a crackdown on migrant numbers at the heart of his election manifesto as he seeks to take votes from the anti-immigration AfD.

On the global stage, he would be expected to provide the strong leadership Europe needs in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and Washington’s faltering support for European defence. Germany also faces growing competition from China and has been grappling with high energy costs.

John Bryson, Professor of Enterprise and Economic Geography at Birmingham University, said the threat of US trade tariffs also loom large for Germany’s next leader.

He told the Daily Express: “If elected as Chancellor, sparks might fly between Merz and Trump as Merz has been extremely critical of Trump’s fascination with tariffs.”

Mr Merz has warned possible US tariffs will be paid by American consumers and trigger “resistance” in the United States. He said previously that taxes on goods have never been a good idea for resolving trade conflicts.

Earlier this month, Mr Trump hinted the EU could be next in line for tariffs, telling the BBC levies on goods entering the US from the bloc might happen “pretty soon”.

Professor Bryson said the EU needs strong leadership amid an “existential crisis” in Europe, driven to a large extent by the war in Ukraine.

He added: “The danger is Merz might sit on the fence and wait for others to act and to take leadership. Such an outcome would be disastrous for Europe.

“If elected, Merz should get behind Ukraine and provide Volodymyr Zelensky with the weapons and support required to defeat Russia.”

The expert explained part of that process would involve marginalising Mr Trump and the US, ensuring Europe’s future is determined by Europeans rather than American or Russians.

Dr Neil Winn, Senior Lecturer in European Studies at Leeds University, told the Daily Express that if Mr Merz were to become Chancellor, it would usher in a more transactional approach to Germany’s relations with the rest of the world.

He said Mr Merz believes in a strong transatlantic alliance with the US, as well as with the EU and France, but added: “Trump’s lack of support for European security has come as a shock to the system for Germans, who rely on the US for their defence and security protection under NATO.”

Russia’s wider invasion of Urkaine prompted a radical change in German foreign policy, known as the Zeitenwende, with defence spending doubling to over 2% of GDP. However, Mr Trump wants NATO members to cough up more.

As a result of Washington’s greater pivot towards Asia, Germany will have to take on more leadership responsibilities in European security, whilst “normalising” its foreign and security policies in what would be a “big step change” for Germans.

UK-German relations are also expected to see a shift in the event of a Merz victory on Sunday. He has expressed a desire for stronger ties, but his conservative policies may mean this is confined only to mutual areas of interest.

Dr Winn said: “Merz’s pragmatic approach to international relations may facilitate constructive dialogues on issues such as trade, security, and economic cooperation.

“However, his conservative stance on certain policies, including migration, could introduce complexities in negotiations, potentially requiring careful navigation to align the interests of both the UK and Germany within the broader EU context.”

The four candidates vying to become Germany’s next leader are Mr Scholz, of the centre-Left Social Democrats; Mr Merz, from the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union; current Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, of the Greens, and Alice Weidel from the AfD.