Stats experts predict Champions League winners – Liverpool win, Man Utd basically out

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Liverpool are on the brink of the semi-finals after a 2-0 victory over Porto in the first leg of their quarter-final clash.

And experts FiveThirtyEight claim they are as good as already there.

The website calculates its data using a Power Index that produces team ratings based on the strength of their attack and defence to work out how many goals one team should score against another.

According to their data, Jurgen Klopp’s side now have a 96 per cent chance of reaching the last four and a 28 per cent chance of winning the final outright.

Liverpool will face one of Barcelona or Manchester United in the semi-final, with Barca big favourites to join them after a 1-0 win in the first leg at Old Trafford.

Incredibly, United are given a less-than-one per cent chance of lifting the Champions League trophy.

Barcelona are second favourites with their chances calculated at 27 per cent.

And while Tottenham beat Manchester City 1-0 in the first leg of their quarter-final clash, City remain big favourites to progress and are given a 22 per cent chance.

The website gives only Liverpool, Barca and City any real hope of winning Europe’s top competition.

Juventus and Spurs are ranked as joint-fourth favourites on eight per cent, while Ajax are given a five per cent chance.

Like United, Porto are given a one per cent chance after their defeat to Liverpool.

While Reds boss Klopp was delighted with his side’s performance against Porto, he is refusing to take a place in the last four as a given.

“We are happy, it is the first leg and it will be an intense second game,” he said after the game.

“We scored two goals and controlled the ball most of the time.

“We gave a few too many set pieces away – I think Porto score about 40 per cent of their goals from set pieces.

“We also saw one or two counter-attacks, but the rest of the game we played really well.

“We lost a little bit of direction in the second half, but there’s nothing to criticise, 2-0 is a very, very good result.

“We knew we had to play the second game and we cannot decide the tie tonight, so now we have to go there and fight again.”

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