State pensioners could get an increase to their DWP payments next April at twice the expected amount, boosting the full new state pension by £920.
The average earnings figure that is used in the triple lock calculation has come out this week, which would mean a four percent increase to payments, but an expert has said the figure could be revised upwards.
Victoria Harris, co-founder of The Curve Platform, said: “The potential revision of the earnings figure for the triple lock is a hot topic.
“While it’s too early to pin down an exact number, we could be looking at an increase of around 7 to 8 percent based on current projections. This would be a significant boost for pensioners.”
An eight percent increase would take the full new state pension from the current £221.20 a week up to £238.90 a week, an increase of £920.40 a year to £12,422.80.
This would also means the full new state pension would become only just over £150 away from being subject to income tax, with the personal allowance curently at £12,570 a year.
Ms Harris said another unknown factor is how the inflation figure could affect the triple lock calculation.
She explained: “We must consider the broader economic implications. Inflation is the wild card here. If it continues to rise in the coming months, we might see even higher pension increases.
“This could be a double-edged sword – great for pensioners in the short term, but potentially challenging for the economy as a whole.”
If the 4% earnings figure that came out this week proves to be the key metric, the full new state pension would go up from £221.20 a week to £230.05 a week, providing a £460 a year boost.
Another analyst has said the state pension could differ from this predicted amount. Yiannis Zourmpanos, financial consultant and senior contributor at Bountii, said: “The Office for National Statistics (ONS) often revises its earnings data, which means the state pension increase you’re expecting might not be the one you’ll get.”
The ONS has been known to provide updated figures that more accurately reflect the actual earnings growth over a given period.
“This means that by the time the final calculations are made, we could see a different percentage being used for the state pension uprating.”
Turning to the question of inflation, Mr Zourmpanos warned: “While inflation was recorded at 2.2 percent in July, we’re not out of the woods yet.
“Inflation tends to be unpredictable, and if it spikes before the key September data is released, it could outpace earnings growth.
“If that happens, inflation—not earnings—will determine the state pension increase for 2024. And given the rising costs of essentials like food, energy, and housing, inflation could indeed take the lead.”
