“Lithuania is the most vulnerable and likely to get attacked”, Tsuckerman revealed, “mainly because it has a strategic area near Belarus. There is a border area between Belarus, Lithuania and Poland that Russia could use as a point of invasion.”
As Russia has already conducted military exercises in the area, Tsukerman suggests Putin could simply expand these into an attack. Additionally, the region has long been considered a potential flashpoint between NATO and Russia, so taking control of it would send a strong message, according to her.
“Russia’s strategy would likely be trying to edge a small provocation, like a small terrorist attack, blame it on Lithuania, and therefore justify a physical defence”, she added.
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These concerns of a potential Baltic invasion are echoed by US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith, who acknowledged earlier this week the pre-eminent threat posed by Russia and emphasizes NATO’s preparations for all contingencies.
While there is no immediate indication of a Russian invasion of NATO territory, Smith said that “NATO is not sitting on its hands” and “It’s not waiting for any possible contingency. Instead, it’s preparing for all contingencies.”
Despite these warnings, Smith clarified that the US does not perceive an imminent Russian threat to NATO. However, concerns persist among NATO’s eastern members, prompting reassurances from Smith regarding the alliance’s commitment to their defence.
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