Six key reasons why Putin has finally realised he'll never win the war with Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has offered an olive branch to Ukraine, announcing he is prepared to sit down for peace talks within 24 hours. But the Kremlin’s peace initiative is conditional on Kyiv agreeing to withdrawing its troops from the occupied territories and renouncing plans to join NATO.

It remains to be seen whether this latest peace proposal from the Russian leader is just another propaganda exercise designed to undermine support for Ukraine in the West.

Or is it maybe that the Russian President has finally concluded that he cannot win the war and it is better to sue for peace while the going is still good.

The Express examines six reasons why Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine.

After months of political deadlock in Washington, Congress finally approved a massive US$61 billion aid package for Ukraine in April.

Key weapons such as air defence systems, artillery units and ammunition, as well as anti-tank rockets and armoured vehicles are all expected to be delivered to Kyiv in the coming days and weeks.

Additionally, Washington is supplying Ukraine’s army with its lethal long-range ATACMS ballistic missiles, which are causing havoc to Russian logistics and military bases deep behind the frontlines.

The EU has also provided close to US$35 billion in assistance and is ramping up military production, increasing its capacity for ammunition by 40 percent.

Finally, the G7 agreed on Thursday to use frozen Russian assets to raise US$50bn (£39bn) for Ukraine. Analysts say Putin has gambled all on the West losing interest in the war and stopping its military support. Yet recent events seem to be proving the very opposite.

The Russian army has sustained massive casualties and continues to do so on a daily basis. France estimates that Russia’s losses have reached a staggering 500,000, including 150,000 deaths.

The British government puts the figure of Russian dead and wounded at 450,000. UK defence officials also estimated that Putin’s army was losing 1,200 soldiers a day during fighting in May.

Although the Kremlin has drafted hundreds of thousands new troops, including prisoners, there is only so much that the Russian public will tolerate – as recent protests by soldiers’ wives show.

The Kremlin risks a major explosion of societal anger if it continues to run up high casualties.

After months of stalemate along the roughly 600 mile frontlines, Russia launched a surprise attack in the Kharkiv region, in an apparent attempt to make a decisive breakthrough.

The Russians initially made impressive gains as they bore down on the city of Vovchansk, just 73 km away from Kharkiv. However, they have since become bogged down in heavy fighting, as Ukrainian troops launched their own counterattack.

Similarly after seizing Avdiivka in Ukraine’s Donbas region in February, Putin’s generals have failed to make significant progress. Currently they are involved in fierce fighting for the control of Chasiv Yar, a strategically significant city.

Russia’s defence ministry’s has been riven with political infighting, that even provoked an attempted coup last summer by the Wagner militia.

Sergey Shoigu has finally been removed as Defence Minister, replaced by the technocrat Andrey Belousov. Shoigu was despised by many within the military and blamed for ammunition and essential equipment shortages.

Infighting among senior officers has also blighted the Kremlin’s military campaign.

Officers daring to criticise their high command have been summarily dismissed, irrespective of their abilities.

This happened to the revered Major General Ivan Popov, former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, who complained about the lack of counter battery fire. He was soon after dismissed and then arrested for fraud by Russian investigators.

Putin is now 71 years old and is rumoured to be afflicted by a number of health issues. He is said to have had Parkinson’s disease, suffered a cardiac arrest and to be battling various forms of cancer.

The Kremlin, though, has always swiftly dismissed any claims that Putin has a severe illness.

However, Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of M16, told LBC in March that Putin has something “fundamentally wrong” with him and that his health is deteriorating.

Russia is burning through the cash as it pours money into arms production and sustaining its army. The Rand think-tank estimates that the Kremlin will spend $132 billion this year alone on the military. This is three times the amount it spent in 2022.

These huge costs do not include the billions more Russia will have to spend on reconstruction in Ukraine, as well as maintaining a huge system of repression.

And all the while Russia’s economy will continue to be constrained by Western sanctions.

Ruslan Gabbasov, an Putin opposition activist told the Express: “Russia will suffocate economically and will become a North Korea mark 2.

“The people will not be prepared to endure it and most likely there will be a big uprising, a big revolution.”