Russia is facing a major social problem, which could threaten its identity and existence, according to a former senior British army officer.
Colonel Tim Collins had a distinguished military career, which included active service in Iraq in 2003.
He is perhaps best known for his rousing speech to troops on the eve of battle, as Nato troops prepared to take the country by storm.
While appearing on the UK Defence Review podcast, the distinguished Colonel pointed to a time bomb waiting to explode in Russia, which could alter its historical trajectory.
He argued that Russia was on the brink of a major demographic crisis due to a catastrophically low birth rate.
“Russia itself is dying,” he said. “Its population will be Muslim – about a third of its population or maybe more than that in five years time. Its birth rate is collapsing.”
Russia currently has a population of 144 million people. However it has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.
According to 2022 data, Russian women on average gave birth to 1.42 children, well below the 2.1 target needed to maintain its population.
Rosstat, Russia’s official statistics agency, has predicted the population could fall to 130 million by 2046 due to the double whammy of declining immigration and low birth rates.
Russia’s Muslim population is a legacy of its imperial past and Muslims make up the majority in several Russian regions.
These include Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia.
However in a poll conducted by the independent Levada Centre in 2022, only five percent of Russia’s population identified as Muslim, whereas 71 percent said they were Orthodox Christian.
Putin has often talked up the close friendship between Russia and China in the wake of his decision to invade Ukraine.
However Colonel Collins claimed Russia was being exploited and used for China’s gain.
“The Chinese regard the Russians as crash test dummies to test against the West,” he said.
“They see them as a completely expendable resource which they will use and that’s why the invasion of Ukraine happened at the timing that it did after the Beijing Winter Olympics.”
