Reports of Cuomo’s rebirth are much exaggerated

Several recent polls show former Gov. Andrew Cuomo leading the 2025 race for New York Mayor. News reports have called Cuomo “an early frontrunner” and said he would “handily win” in a race he has not yet entered. As a pollster who has worked on hundreds of races, I would offer a note of caution on the prognostications.

Just four years ago, at the exact same point in the campaign, Andrew Yang enjoyed a 28-17 lead over his nearest challenger and seemed on a glide path to City Hall, only to finish in fourth place. Just a few months ago, many New York political pundits declared Mayor Adams the favorite.

Our own poll of 800 likely New York City Democratic primary voters, conducted for United for a Brighter Tomorrow, an advocacy organization that works to educate Americans about the need for honest leadership, shows the following:

• New York Democrats are very pessimistic about the direction of the city and view Adams skeptically. Nearly 3-in-4 voters say the city is on the wrong track and Adams has an abysmal 67% unfavorable rating. His prospects look dim.
• New Yorkers have mixed feelings about Cuomo (45% favorable/47% unfavorable), while they are more positive towards the other candidates who are less known. Scott Stringer (37% favorable/21% unfavorable), Brad Lander (33% favorable/11% unfavorable), Jessica Ramos (23% favorable/9% unfavorable), Zohran Mamdani (19% favorable/9% unfavorable), and Zellnor Myrie (16% favorable/9% unfavorable) all have far better favorable/unfavorable ratios than Cuomo. Cuomo’s ratings are even worse among those who say they will definitely vote in the primary (43% favorable/50% unfavorable).
• Cuomo starts with a lead that is based on better name recognition, but is hardly set in stone. Cuomo starts with 31% in round 1. So why does Cuomo lead if the other candidates have higher favorability ratings? Simply, because many voters don’t know who these candidates are (except for the wildly unpopular Adams). As these candidates become better known, we should not be surprised to see Cuomo’s lead dwindle.
• Cuomo is vulnerable and his support erodes quickly when voters are reminded of his actions. After voters hear a series of negative messages about his record, Cuomo’s favorability falls precipitously. He ends the survey at a stunning 66% unfavorable. Moreover, Cuomo’s vote share drops from 31% initially to 18% after the messages.

In a ranked choice vote that requires candidates to receive broad support, or at least toleration from a majority of voters, Cuomo’s vulnerabilities make his path far more difficult than it appears at first blush if at least one of the lesser-known candidates can establish himself or herself as a viable alternative.

The most troubling aspect for a potential Cuomo campaign is the fact that the largest drop-off in support comes from his base: Black and Latino working-class voters. After messaging, Cuomo’s support among these voters drops by nearly 20 points.

Let me take a moment here to describe what we mean by negative messaging. Very simply — this is a presentation of basic facts about Cuomo and his record. We run through several issues and then ask voters if they are concerned. This is the type of message testing strategic polling firms like mine employ to understand which messages are effective and the ways in which a final election result may look different from the first poll that is heavily influenced by name identification.

For example — after Cuomo was accused of sexual harassment by members of his staff, he tried to embarrass his victims instead of apologizing. He issued dozens of subpoenas, attempting to obtain confidential information against his victims, and in one case he sought to gain access to files held by one of his victims’ gynecologists. Overall, 74% of the voters we surveyed had serious or very serious concerns about that.

Cuomo gained prominence for his handling of COVID, but his administration forced sick New Yorkers into nursing homes, leading to the deaths of thousands of people, and New York led the country in nursing home deaths. At the same time, he hid the number of nursing home deaths during the pandemic, underreporting them by 50% in order to gain publicity and secure a $5 million book deal. This raised serious or very serious concerns from 72% of voters.

It is remarkable that a candidate as well-known as Cuomo loses support this quickly just by reminding voters about his record. New Yorkers are clearly unhappy and looking for a change. Cuomo’s high name recognition boosts him in public polling at this stage, but his support is incredibly soft. This race is up for grabs.

Bocian is a founding partner at GBAO, a Democratic polling firm whose client United for a Brighter Tomorrow is running anti-Cuomo ads.