THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET
JETS vs VIKINGS in LONDON
9:30 a.m., Vikings by 2 ½, 40 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Aaron Rodgers’ record against the blitz is outstanding. He has always gotten to you before you get to him. But this is no ordinary blitz. Brian Flores has been all over teams each and every week. The defense relies a lot on pre-snap deception, and while that plays into Rodgers’ strength in recognizing coverage and manipulating secondaries, the Jets’ O-line had all sorts of issues against the Broncos with Rodgers beat up rather badly. There’s an undercurrent of discontent within the Jets. Maybe this will be a Kumbaya trip, who knows? But we do know that no one is playing better than Minnesota right now and they still feel they have something to prove. This isn’t just another game to Sam Darnold and the chances of Minny taking Rodgers lightly are zero.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the under.
GIANTS at SEAHAWKS
4:25 p.m., Seahawks by 5 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Making the long trek to Seattle with earplugs packed isn’t ideal but the Seahawks could be in a worse spot. They play on a short week after being drilled by the Lions while looking ahead to a Thursday night matchup against the 49ers. It will be easy for them to look past the Giants, who will be on 10 days rest themselves. Half the fan base is down on Danny Dimes but when you look at his stats, especially some of the advance metrics, he doesn’t stack up that badly, with improved protection up front. Until Jared Goff had his historic night against them, the Seahawks had feasted against rookie QB Bo Nix, washed-up Jacoby Brissett and backup Skylar Thompson. Jones is an upgrade over that trio.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Giants and the under.
BROWNS at COMMANDERS
1 p.m., Commanders by 3 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It might be time to pump the brakes on the Jayden Daniels bandwagon, especially with public bettors 70% on Washington’s side. Incredibly the Commanders have more scoring drives (23) than Daniels has incompletions (19) but how long can they keep that up? With a neighborhood rivalry against the Ravens next up, there’s a chance the Commanders, as unaccustomed as they are to such heights, can look past the Browns, who can’t be as bad as they have looked. CB Denzel Ward can neutralize Daniels’ top target Terry McLaurin while Daniels is under pressure from Myles Garrett and friends. It’s true that there hasn’t been much of a reason to trust Deshaun Watson and he’ll be without Nick Chubb one more time. But it just seems too easy. We’ll take the bait, as well as the hook.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.
RAVENS at BENGALS
1 p.m., Ravens by 2 ½, 51
HANK’S HONEYS: The Ravens got back on track in a big way against the Bills and finally displayed their huge offensive potential. Now they’ll have a chance to continue the train ride against a Bengals defense that can’t stop anyone. The Patriots are the only team not to have scored at least 24 points against them, and that includes the Panthers with 24 last week. Cincy ranks 31st in the NFL in sacks and pressures with DE Trey Hendrickson hobbled. They have also allowed 6.1 yards per attempt and must now try to stop human battering ram Derrick Henry. The total is high, but the teams are a combined 6-2 to the over this season. Joe Burrow will make his plays.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the over.
DOLPHINS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Dolphins by 1 ½, 35 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s a get-right game for the Dolphins to get off the schneid against a Patriots team that is getting worse and worse on both sides of the ball. They have a punchless offense with a horrendous O-line and Jacoby Brissett unable to push the ball downfield. Their defense is getting worn down from being on the field too long. Tyler Huntley hardly had time to meet his new teammates before his first start with the Dolphins, but he showed enough in his backup appearances for Lamar Jackson in Baltimore that he can throw the football. He has plenty of receiving talent at his disposal and he should be able to locate them better after another week of work in Mike McDaniel’s complex system. There’s a lot of disruptive talk swirling around Foxboro and, in many cases, teams can come out swinging. It doesn’t seem, however, that the Pats have enough to land any punches. The line is so ridiculously low that the law of averages makes it an over bet.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the over.
PANTHERS at BEARS
1 p.m., Bears by 4 ½, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: Caleb Williams is progressing, albeit slowly, but this is his best chance to live up to his No. 1 pick. His O-line has put him under duress all season long, but he might finally have some time in the pocket in this one. The Panthers’ defense is facing a litany of injuries, especially up front, and when you consider where they started, that’s not good. Andy Dalton gave the Panthers a boost in his first start but, predictably, things reverted toward the norm in a double-digit loss to the Bengals. He could be missing WR Diontae Johnson against a sneaky-good Bears defense.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under.
BILLS at TEXANS
1 p.m., Texans by 1 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Lock in the over with Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud likely to get into a shootout with Tank Dell returning to the Texans lineup but with Houston missing star safety Jimmie Ward, an obvious area for Allen to target. The Texans have yet to put it all together (the most penalized team in the league) and in their only game against a top tier team, they were destroyed by the Vikings. Buffalo is coming off a back-to-reality moment in Baltimore and should come out with a lot more focus here. The Ravens exposed the Bills’ run defense, but the Texans are not a running team, especially on early downs. That’s not going to change even if Joe Mixon can return to the field this week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the over.
RAMS at PACKERS
4:25 p.m., Packers by 3 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It took some time for Jordan Love to get going, but when he did he put a huge scare into what has been an excellent Vikings defense. He’ll be able to tear apart this depleted Rams defense from the opening gun. No defense has allowed more yards per play than L.A. at 6.4, or more yards per pass at 9.1, with a secondary rife with communication meltdowns and penalties. Opponents have converting on third down at a 50% rate, with only two teams worse. We’ll give Matthew Stafford his props but with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua still out, his offense isn’t built for shootouts. The Packers have not beaten the Rams in California since 1966 when Vince Lombardi was their coach. Winning — and covering — will be everything this week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the over.
COWBOYS at STEELERS
8:20 p.m., Steelers by 1 ½, 43
HANK’S HONEYS: Mike Tomlin’s teams are always good after a loss. Indeed, the Steelers have rebounded for eight ATS wins following their last 10 SU defeats. Add to that the fact that only turnovers cost them last week’s game in Indy. Otherwise, they were on schedule. When you compare the defenses, it’s the Steelers by a wide margin, even with edge rusher Alex Highsmith out. The Cowboys are the more-rested team but also the more hobbled. Dallas will be missing DeMarcus Lawrence (IL’d for the season Monday) and probably Micah Parsons. Their front can be outmuscled and that’s the Steelers’ DNA. The Cowboys got themselves a much-needed win against a mediocre Giants team but displayed a lot of false bravado afterwards. They aren’t close to solving their many problems.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.
SAINTS at CHIEFS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Chiefs by 5 ½, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Chiefs always seem to do just enough to win and with Rashee Rice joining an already sizable MASH unit (and Travis Kelce MIA), they’re not suddenly going to turn into an offensive juggernaut. It’s a much bigger game for the Saints, who have lost two straight games they easily could have won. Those first two games may have been a mirage, but this is a chance to show the nation that they’re not dead. The Chiefs, once prolific scorers, have become an under team and Andy Reid has been coaching that way. With so many injuries, he will not expose Patrick Mahomes. He’ll rely on his defense and the short-to-medium passing game once again.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under.
LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
RAIDERS at BRONCOS
4:05 p.m., Broncos by 2 ½, 36
HANK’S HONEYS: The Davante Adams situation has cast a big shadow over this divisional clash between otherwise evenly matched teams, with the Raiders looking for their ninth consecutive SU win. Adams wants out, coach Antonio Pierce seems to agree, and the WR is highly unlikely to suit up for this one. That will eliminate the threat of Gardner Minshew throwing it deep against a Broncos defense that has been playing lights out the last two weeks. On the other hand, Denver’s offense is stuck in the mud with rookie Bo Nix unable — or unwilling — to throw the ball downfield or over the middle, although he’ll probably luck out with DE Maxx Crosby on the sidelines.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Broncos and the under.
BEST OF THE REST
COLTS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Jags by 2 ½, 46
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the under.
CARDINALS at 49ERS
4:05 p.m., 49ers by 7 ½, 50
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the over.
* * *
WEEK’S BEST BET: Packers. Love lights the dumpster fire.
LAST WEEK: 5-10-1, 9-7 over/under
OVERALL: 27-35-2, 37-26-1 over/under
BEST BETS: 1-3
