Emmanuel Macron is facing a devastating defeat at the hands of National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, new polls suggest. The French electorate are poised to cast the first round of their votes in the country’s parliamentary elections on June 30.
The pro-Macron coalition of parties, which includes the President’s Renaissance party, is sitting on 19.5 percent of the vote.
Meanwhile, RN, branded “far-Right” by its critics, is sitting on between 32 and 36 percent depending on whether support from other Right-wing parties is included.
According to the Ipsos poll for Le Monde, the Left-wing coalition New Popular Front is currently second in the polls on 29 percent. If the poll proves to be accurate, Marcon’s gamble to dissolve the National Assembly will appear to have backfired.
If his coalition loses its parliamentary majority, then he will be virtually compelled to appoint a prime minister from the largest party.
If the largest party proves to be RN, then it is expected that 28-year-old Jordan Bardella will take office. Under the French constitution, the PM is charged with running domestic affairs. While the president’s only remit is defence and foreign policy.
Should Bardella take office, Macron’s position may become untenable. Although, there is precedent for the president and prime minister to come from different parties – something referred to in France as “cohabitation”.
As well as the striking support for RN and the New Popular Front in the latest Ipsos poll, the survey also suggests a marked rise in turnout, suggesting a radical uptick in political engagement.
The last National Assembly vote two years ago saw just 47.5 percent of the electorate go to the polls. If the latest poll is correct, as much as 65 percent of the French electorate will turn out to vote.
Perhaps this is unsurprising given the febrile political atmosphere in France, and the fact that Macron has called the election in the context of RN’s marked success in the European Elections earlier this month.
