Landmark AUKUS deal may be derailed by concerns over cost, warns ex-Royal Navy chief

Concerns over the enormous costs involved in the construction of nuclear submarines may derail the trilateral AUKUS deal between the UK, the USA and Australia, former head of the Royal Navy Lord West of Spithead has warned.

The agreement, signed in September 2021, is a partnership aimed at ensuring stability in the Indo-Pacific region, consisting of two major aspects, or “pillars”.

The first will see the US and UK share technology with Australia in order to develop a new class of nuclear-powered submarines, the SNN-AUKUS, while the second pillar will focus on cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.

However, speaking earlier this month, Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, voiced his doubts about the long-term viability of AUKUS, citing estimated costs of up to £286 billion between now and the 2050s.

Prof White told ABC RN’s Global Roaming: “I think the chance of the plan unfolding effectively is extremely low.”

Meanwhile, in an analysis published last week, Allan Behm, director of Australia’s International and Security Affairs Program, wrote: “The 2021 AUKUS announcement came with the promise of a sovereign Australian fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.

“Nearly 18 months on, however, it remains unclear if these submarines will ever be delivered – or if Australia actually needs them.”

Lord West, who served as First Sea Lord and Chief of the Royal Naval Staff from 2002 to 2006, believes the agreement, signed in September 2021, represents a “very good deal” for Britain.

However, he also acknowledged there was some reticence in both Washington and Canberra about the financial burden.

He explained: “Pillar Two is very useful, and there’s a discussion about whether Japan be allowed to get involved, should Canada be involved, etc, that’s great.

“But with Pillar One, there are a number of complications. So, yes, there’s a cost which is huge, and the Australians seem to be committed to it.

“But there are now a number of voices in Australia saying, can we really do this, as one would expect

“The other thing is the Americans themselves, who are going to be selling for Virginia class submarines to the Australians as a stopgap.

“They are short of nuclear attack submarines and so there are people in America who are saying, ‘well, how are we sure we want to do this because we can’t build enough quickly enough to fill up the gap when we get rid of the ones we’re giving to Australia’.”

The Royal Navy currently operates six fleet submarines (SSNs), of the Trafalgar and Astute classes, with two more Astute-class boats currently under construction), and four ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), of the Vanguard class, equipped with nuclear weapons. All are nuclear powered.

However, Lord West emphasised that such vessels did not simply “come off the conveyor belt”.

He explained: “The Astute class submarines are more complex than the technical work to land a man on the moon. That is how incredibly complex the technology is.

“It’s wonderful that we’re actually doing that because it means you’ve got people of that sort of skill, but it’s right at the edge of what we can do.

“AUKUS is a very good agreement for us. It actually effectively enables us to fund the next generation of nuclear attack submarines after the Astute class, so for the UK, it’s a very good deal.

“But there are pressures from within the American establishment about submarine numbers and there are pressures within Australia from the opposition and other academics then saying, ‘Oh, my God, can we really afford this?’ and asking what the timescales, which is hardly surprising, because that’s what happens whenever there’s a project like this doesn’t.

“I’m very pro- it as a project but I can see why people are you know, pushing and saying, ‘Well, what about this and what about that?’”