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Iran may try to retaliate against the U.S. after a stealth strike hit three key Iranian nuclear facilities, though the regime lacks the capabilities to make a “significant escalation,” an expert on the Middle East and U.S. national security told Fox News Digital on Sunday.
Jacob Olidort, the director of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute, said Iran is “a lot of bark right now,” and anticipated that there “might be a small bite” from the regime directed at the U.S.
“I do foresee some kind of face-saving efforts,” Olidort said, noting that Iran could potentially launch cyber-attacks or attacks on infrastructure in the region.
Iran has already launched more missiles at Israel in the wake of the U.S. military’s Operation Midnight Hammer, striking at least 10 impact sites and injuring at least 20 people in Israel.
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A close-up of a crater over the underground Natanz facility on June 22, 2025, after U.S. strikes targeted the enrichment site. (Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies)
But Olidort said he didn’t expect “any significant escalation” from Iran, not because of the regime’s lack of will to do so, but because it now simply lacks the capabilities for a stronger response after Israel launched waves of its own strikes against the regime earlier this month.
Israel has said its strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile sites, and killed multiple Iranian military leaders.
This satellite picture by Planet Labs PBC shows Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo after a U.S. airstrike targeted the facility on Sunday, June 22, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
In the hours after the strikes, Tehran said that the time for diplomacy had passed and that it had the right to defend itself. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has declared that “now is the time for peace.”
As for the impact on the power Iran wields through its force of proxies in the region, Olidort said it’s notable that none of them have immediately jumped to Iran’s aid following the U.S. strikes, which possibly points to Iran’s weakness.
Olidort said the U.S. operation’s impact on Iran’s nuclear program could set the regime’s goal of achieving a nuclear weapon back “a considerable amount.”
“Before these strikes, Israel had taken out many of Iran’s capabilities and many of its nuclear scientists,” he said, adding that he estimated Israel had already set back Iran’s nuclear program by two to three years.
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The U.S. strikes may now have hindered Iran’s nuclear program by upwards of a decade, according to Olidort, though he said that the timeframe largely depends on what actions or agreements the U.S. and Iran make in the days to come.
The U.S. launched a surprise strike using B-2 stealth bombers on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities on Saturday.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a briefing at the Pentagon on Sunday morning that the full extent of the battle damage to the facilities would take time to assess.
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It remained unclear as of Sunday whether any enriched nuclear material was destroyed in the U.S. strikes or if Iran had moved the material beforehand.