Iran could potentially execute a terrorist attack anywhere in the world in response to Israel’s deadly missile strike in Syria, a security expert has warned.
The missile strike on the Iranian consulate, which resulted in the death of a top general, could provoke Iran to retaliate against Israelis overseas.
The Israeli airstrike on Monday obliterated the consulate in Syria’s capital, Damascus, killing two Iranian generals and five officers.
The airstrike killed General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who commanded the elite Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Israel and its allies are now preparing for a possible retaliatory response.
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One analyst told Daily Mirror that the “ball is really in Iran’s side of the pitch in terms of responding.”
Dr Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor of Security Studies at King’s College London, said: “The problem here is that Iran is being put to the test in how they respond. The credibility of Iran’s deterrent is on the line.”
“Because so far Iran has restrained itself quite significantly. Iran can’t just respond with another proxy attack into Israel, it needs to be a significant retaliation to maintain its credibility.”
Dr Kreig also cautioned that a direct strike could be challenging due to the high alert status of Israel’s military and US forces in the area. He elaborated: “We’ve seen all the escalation already in the Red Sea, which is continuing.
“But the Houthis – even if they were trying to strike Israel – it’s unlikely they would ever succeed. Hezbollah could escalate but Hezbollah itself has their own calculus and autonomy in terms of making decisions and they have no interest in getting dragged into an all-out war with Israel.”
Instead, Quds Force, one of five branches of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) specialising in unconventional warfare and military intelligence, could target Israelis abroad, even though that could be a shift away from Iran’s usual response.
Dr Kreig expert said: “It could be a terrorist attack. Quds force could kidnap some Israelis or strike Israelis overseas.”
“But the Iranians usually don’t do that, there’s always going to be lag. their response could come in two months’ time, three months’ time. We don’t know when an opportunity could arise.”
Meanwhile, the US is also bracing for an attack. On Wednesday in Washington, the top US Air Force commander for the Middle East, Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich, said Iran’s assertion that the US bears responsibility for Israeli actions could bring an end to a pause in militia attacks on US forces that have lasted since early February.
He said he sees no specific threat to US troops right now. But added: “I am concerned because of the Iranian rhetoric talking about the US, that there could be a risk to our forces.”
US officials have documented over 150 attacks by Iran-backed militias on US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria since the war between Hamas and Israel erupted on Oct. 7.
A particularly devastating attack in late January resulted in the death of three US service members and left dozens injured at a base in Jordan.
In a powerful counterstrike, the US unleashed a large-scale air assault, striking more than 85 targets across seven locations in Iraq and Syria. These included command and control headquarters, drone and ammunition storage sites, and other facilities linked to the militias or the IRGC’s Quds Force – the Guard’s expeditionary unit responsible for Tehran’s relations with and arming of regional militias.
Since this robust response, there have been no publicly reported attacks on US troops in the region.
