'I'm an ex-soldier – this will be Ukraine's 5-point plan to absolutely pummel Russia'

Ukraine has launched its biggest counter offensive since Russia first invaded, with kamikaze drone strikes on two major airfields being the latest blow to Putin’s forces.

A senior Ukrainian military commander has said that his forces now control 1,000 square kilometres in the Kursk region of Russia following a successful surprise offensive that has left Russian leadership stunned.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi made the announcement on the Telegram channel of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy where he stated that: “The troops are fulfilling their tasks. Fighting continues actually along the entire front line. The situation is under our control.”

The attack has forced more than 100,000 civilians to flee and has led to Russian President Vladmir Putin launching what he calls a “counter-terrorism operation.”

Ukraine will have planned this operation in multiple phases from a shaping phase prior to the assault to a break in, an exploitation and a consolidation. They will have a main effort that they hope to achieve as well as secondary and tertiary objectives which could range from seizure of land, and destruction of forces to information warfare and political currency.

But what could these things be? At this stage it remains unclear and Ukraine have naturally not unveiled their grand strategic plan. But this surprise assault changes perceptions on the progress of the war and Ukraine’s ability to strike back against their aggressors.

1. Divert Russian forces away from frontline

The war is now two and a half years old and has reverted into a trench warfare stalemate the type of which many believed, until recently, had been resigned to the history books of the 20th century.

Russia has been able to construct well formed defensive positions along its western flank that have been able to repel Ukrainian attacks with relative ease.

Likewise, the Ukrainian defensive positions have been able to do the same to a large extent, although ongoing issues surrounding manpower and ammunition have forced Ukraine at times to tactically withdraw and consolidate their limited resources.

With the war now in its third summer, many western analysts have come to believe that both sides are holding their ground and waiting to see how events across the world develop and impact the conflict, most notably the outcome of the US presidential election.

But with any stalemate be it in chess or warfare, an ‘outside of the box’ solution is often required to achieve any success. Initial reports coming from western media and military bloggers inside Russia indicate that Russia’s C2 has been thrown into chaos. This combined with the diversion of troops to deal with the invasion could soften up Russian defences in the south that could aid Ukraine in its attempts to break through.

2. Seize land ahead of negotiations

Donald Trump has claimed on many occasions that he will end the war in a day. Many have interpreted that as a threat to withdraw the aid that has been crucial in allowing Ukraine to fight on this long.

Should such a thing happen, Ukraine would be forced to the negotiation table with a weak hand. Russia has in the past offered peace terms that centre on Ukraine giving up any claims to the 20% of its territory that it has lost since the invasion.

This move to seize Russian territory could be an attempt to strengthen their hand at any future negotiations however in order for that to transpire, they would need to keep it hold of it until then – Not an easy thing to do.

Putin has already publicly berated his senior officials as he seeks to divert blame for the failure away from himself.

It is no great leap to presume therefore that some of the Russian army’s most elite forces will be sent to aid the inevitable counter-attack, with huge political consequences resulting from failure to do so.

Ukraine has vowed to continue to push eastwards into Russia. The further they go, the longer the logistical chain becomes and the bigger the risk of forces becoming cut off grows.

Whilst Ukraine seizing Russian territory has value, its ability to hold it and the strategic merit of doing so means that it is unlikely that they will seek to do so for any great length of time.

3. Display ability to fight to foreign aid providers

Ukraine knows that it finds itself at a critical juncture. The prospect of a Trump presidency and the increase of the far-right around Europe means that Ukraine cannot be sure that the support it has received thus far will continue indefinitely.

The country has managed its relationship with allies brilliantly throughout the war, conscious of the importance of their ongoing support and Ukraine’s need to justify its continuation.

After months of incremental losses it is a breath of fresh air to supporters of Ukraine’s right to sovereignty to see them punch back – Like seeing your favourite boxer rise off their stool in the 8^th round and land blows after failing to do so for the previous four.

In launching its assault in Kursk, Ukraine is showing its allies as well as the Russian’s that it has the ability and will to fight back hard. This could be worth its weight in gold, quite literally, in the months ahead.

4. Destablise Putin

Putin likes to portray himself as a strong leader but his strength is paper thin. It is only a year ago since the Russian military folded like a deckchair in the face of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted coup and memories in Russia are not short.

There is a growing anti-war sentiment bubbling under the surface of Russian society that will only increase as the body bags mount. Big statements that demonstrate to the Russian people that the war is not necessarily going their own way bring the risk of these sentiments boiling over more likely.

5. Boost Ukrainian morale

Morale is a crucial component of fighting power, in many ways as vital bombs and bullets and can often be the difference between success and failure.

In many ways, it is the resolve and determination of the Ukrainian people that has allowed them to hold out this long, the belief in the justness of their cause giving them an ability to fight harder than they knew they could.

But time can wear that down, especially in a climate of limited weaponry, depleting manpower, wavering foreign support and constant incremental losses. The impact of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians seeing their forces inflict hurt on the enemy should not be underestimated and is something I imagine that Ukrainian military planners are well aware of.