There is much consternation throughout Europe today about what a Trump presidency will actually mean for Ukraine and European security.
But there is path which could see a Trump administration actually accelerate Ukraine’s path to EU and Nato membership.
The 78-year-old demi-billionaire has been public about his aspirations to speak to Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian Premier Vladimir Putin and “get a deal done” within 24 hours of occupying the White House in January.
Much of his rhetoric, of course, has been driven by a presidential campaign in which selling the notion of giving billions of dollars of Ukraine when the border in Mexico has been left undefended would have been anathema to his MAGA base.
Under a Biden presidency, the US has bolstered Ukraine to the tune of £175bn in military assistance through five separate bills. And a large chunk of that – some £50bn – was rushed through in April precisely to give Zelensky breathing room on the event of a Trump presidency in November.
But Trump’s rejection of conventional diplomacy has paid dividends in the past.
Only a Trump administration, which pursued a maximum pressure policy against the big regional destabiliser, Iran, could have secured the Abraham Accords, which saw Muslim Gulf states Bahrain and the UAE join Sudan and Moroccos in normalising relations with Israel.
Middle Eastern powerhouse Saudi Arabia was on the verge of joining when war broke our between Israel and Hamas on October 7.
It is no accident that Putin launched his invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 when a Democrat was in the Oval Office.
Trump may do all he can to avoid war, but his unpredictability makes for an uncomfortable gamble.
It is Trump who became the first Western leader to offer Ukraine lethal aid, when he gave Zelensky Javelin missiles in 2018 – an idea rejected out of hand by his Democrat predecessor Barack Obama.
And it is Trump who ensured the largest number of US boots on the ground in Europe , even as he fought for European Nato members to pull their weight financially.
Recent months of the war have exhausted both sides. Russia has lost momentum, and the introduction of 11,000 North Korean troops – necessary because Putin refuses to conscript the sons of Moscow’s elite and the siloviki – demonstrates desperation.
Ukraine’s manpower shortage is even worse, and both sides are heading for what in chess is called Zugzwang, or “a compelled move,” where the player forced to move can only make his own situation worse.
Those that say the new US president will sell Zelensky down the river miss two crucial points: the Ukrainian president will have the final say, and Trump wants peace on his terms, not Russia’s – he wants a trophy.
The thought of Ukraine being presented with a plan to let conquered and ethnically Russian territories of Crimea, Donbas and Donetsk go may seem like appeasement to a brutal invader.
But this already forms the basis of Zelensky’s stated dream outcome.
An East Germany-style bifurcation of Ukraine would leave a country whose sovereignty is intact and the reward would be joining the EU membership and, eventually, Nato.
Such a proposition would leave Putin, who wants Ukraine to remain a neutral buffer zone, as the obstructionist.
And it is here that both Zelensky and Trump would play their hands.
Zelensky possesses accrued leverage after Ukraine’s Kursk offensive into mainland Russia. And those who believe Trump will roll over for Putin over estimate the influence the Russian premier may hold.
As Sir Laurie Bristow – British ambassador to Russia at the time of the Salisbury poisonings in 2015 – said in an interview with the Sunday Express in September: “Putin had very high expectations of Trump once, but those expectations were largely dashed when he realised he could not manipulate Trump as much as he thought he could.”
And Trump has already rejected Russia’s own plan.
It is far more likely that he could threaten an expansion of US support for Ukraine and withering economic warfare against Russia should Putin reject the deal
One way to make this threat credible is to allow Ukraine to launch US long-range missiles on Russia.
And he could face down Republican opposition if offering aid on the form of lend lease – the Second World War-style assistance that would be eventually paid back.
Much work has already been done in Congress on this front to assuage reluctant Republicans, and it is an idea which Trump has publicly supported.
It is too soon to lament Ukraine’s fate. Trump may still hold a card or two.
