A month has passed since Julius Randle became extension-eligible, but the three-time All-Star and the Knicks have yet to reach an agreement.
The Knicks have options, and so does Randle. The direction chosen by the Leon Rose-led front office will determine the team’s ability to compete with the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers for a shot at an NBA title.
HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
- Randle became eligible to sign a four-year, $181.5 million contract extension on Aug. 3. The Knicks can offer a 40% raise, the maximum allowed in this type of extension. For comparison, Jalen Brunson’s extension also included a 40% raise, totaling $156.5 million. The Knicks and Randle can agree to an extension any time before June 30.
- Randle is entering the third season of his four-year, $117 million contract. This season is viewed as a critical juncture, as he holds a $30.9 million player option for Year 4, which he could decline to test free agency next summer.
- Last season, Randle averaged 24 points, nine rebounds and five assists per game. The only other players to post this stat line or better were either former or future MVPs: Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, Denver’s Nikola Jokic, Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid and Dallas’ Luka Doncic.
- Randle appeared in just 46 games last season, missing the second half due to a dislocated right shoulder that required surgery. This was the only season he’s missed significant time since his rookie year.
- Mikal Bridges becomes eligible for a two-year, $77 million extension in October.
- If Randle doesn’t sign an extension this season, he could negotiate for a five-year, $314.65 million super max contract next summer.
OPTION 1: KNICKS SIGN RANDLE TO AN EXTENSION
If Randle and the Knicks agreed to his max extension this summer, he would be leaving $133 million on the table.
That’s the difference between the most the Knicks can offer now and the potential payday Randle could secure next summer. By declining his fourth-year player option, testing free agency and qualifying for the 10-year veteran maximum worth 35% of the cap, Randle could command a five-year, $314.65 million deal.
However, if the Knicks and Randle settle on the $181.5 million extension, they would already have $193.7 million in guaranteed salaries committed to just 10 players for the 2025-26 season.
This figure doesn’t include potential contracts for Precious Achiuwa or Jericho Sims, which means the Knicks would have to inch closer to the projected $207.8 million second apron to build out a full roster and add depth behind Mitchell Robinson at center.
Every dollar counts, including those Randle might leave on the table during contract extension negotiations.
These dollars also matter to potential suitors. If the Knicks can sign Randle for significantly less than his supermax, teams eyeing him might see even more value in his team-friendly contract.
Timing, however, is everything.
Once the Knicks get past the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline with Randle still on the roster, they lose leverage. At that point, Randle could decline any extension and test free agency, where he might either sign with another team or use his leverage to negotiate a massive deal, similar to what OG Anunoby did.
You’ll recall Anunoby threatened to leave the Knicks in free agency just months after they acquired him by trading R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to the Toronto Raptors. With no cap space to sign free agents and having sacrificed key players to acquire their star forward, the Knicks eventually caved, and Anunoby secured the richest deal in franchise history: five years, $212.5 million.
OPTION 2: TRADE RANDLE AHEAD OF DEADLINE
Before the roosters even finished their morning crow, the Knicks had already put a four-year offer in front of Jalen Brunson as soon as he became extension eligible.
They weren’t as quick to reach an agreement with Randle, indicating some uncertainty about the All-Star forward’s short-term future in New York.
As always at Madison Square Garden, a trade is on the table. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst recently described Randle and his $28.9 million salary as “extraordinarily tradable” on his podcast, The Hoop Collective.
However, finding a trade that improves the Knicks’ chances at winning a title is easier said than done.
Randle commands a double team both on the drive and with his back to the basket. His five assists per game tied Zion Williamson for sixth among all players who primarily played the four last season.
It’s difficult to find a single player — unless the Knicks are getting LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Lauri Markkanen — who can individually replicate Randle’s production.
If the Knicks don’t intend to pay Randle the $181.5 million extension this summer, and if they have no intention of letting him walk in free agency, a trade would be the best course of action to ensure they remain competitive for a championship.
OPTION 3: KNICKS AND RANDLE PLAY THE WAITING GAME
The Knicks and Randle have until June 30 to finalize a contract extension, but the situation is anything but straightforward.
While locking in an early extension would provide security for Randle and clarity for the Knicks, waiting might offer both sides more leverage. Randle’s choice to play out the season without an extension could dramatically impact his market value, especially if he shines in the playoffs.
However, waiting carries risks for Randle. He could get hurt again, decreasing his market value, or struggle in the playoffs, as he did in 2021. His ability to perform in the postseason will be critical for his next contract.
If Randle delivers, he’ll be in line for a supermax contract next summer, a deal only the Knicks — or any team acquiring his Bird Rights via trade — can offer.
JULIUS RANDLE’S POTENTIAL SUPER MAX STRUCTURE
2025-26: $54.25M
2026-27: $58.59M
2027-28: $62.93M
2028-29: $67.28M
2029-30: $71.62M
But waiting also poses risks for the Knicks. If Randle has a standout season, he could command a contract well above the $181.5 million extension the Knicks could offer now. While New York could exceed the cap to re-sign him up to his supermax, it would push them into the restrictive second apron, complicating their ability to build a competitive roster.
During this waiting period, the Knicks could explore other roster moves or trade scenarios. If a superstar becomes available, a sign-and-trade involving Randle next summer could maximize the team’s return.
The worst-case scenario remains: Randle opts out, and the Knicks lose him for nothing, a setback that could reverberate through the franchise for years.
However, with Leon Rose steering the ship, the Knicks have shown a knack for navigating complex situations like this. Whether they opt for an extension, a trade, or a strategic wait-and-see approach, their decision on Randle will play a pivotal role in defining their championship aspirations.
