Lebanon-based proscribed terrorist group Hezbollah has announced the appointment of its new leader after the death of its long-term Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli air strike in Beirut last month.
The new man is its former Deputy Secretary General, Naim Qassem. It had been expected that cleric Hashem Safieddine would have been next in line, but the IDF got there first and eliminated him before he could be promoted.
Hezbollah leaders tend to have a short lifetime these days. Somewhat mockingly, Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant described Qassem’s elevation as a “temporary appointment” and “not for long”. Recent history suggests he may well be right.
Compare and contrast Hezbollah’s approach with that of their partners in crime, Hamas, who after the death of their leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza have indicated that they will not publicise the identity of their new leader when he is appointed for safety and security reasons.
To imagine that will make any real difference is a forlorn hope I’m afraid. Both terrorist organisations are so riddled through and through with foreign agents and informers at every level that the identity of any new appointee won’t be secret for very long.
The only thing that might, I repeat might, save Qassem is if Hezbollah announces a cessation of hostilities against Israel and their agreement to conform to UN Resolution 1701, which calls for the withdrawal of their fighters to north of the Litani River in south Lebanon.
Interestingly, Qassem had earlier indicated that the group might be open to a ceasefire that is not linked to the Gaza Strip. Previously it had insisted that stopping its operations against Israeli forces would be contingent on the halting Israeli operations there.
Plus a successful implementation of the above ceasefire framework that pushes Hezbollah north of the Litani River would reduce the threat of a Hezbollah October 7 – style offensive into northern Israel.
It is unlikely, however, to be sufficient to stop rocket fire into Israel due to the range of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal. Most of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal consists of short-range missiles, but a smaller number of munitions would still be able to reach targets in Israel.
Qassem’s head, therefore, would most likely remain on the Israeli executioner’s block. Netanyahu is unlikely to agree to anything short of total cessation of hostilities.
So, if Hezbollah continues its attacks on Israel then it is highly likely that Qassem will meet a similar fate to his predecessors. The decision is in their hands. And if he is assassinated, the terrorists will appoint another leader and the drama will be repeated ad nauseam.
The other possibility, an outside chance at the moment, is that Iran could withdraw its support for its proxies in the so-called Axis of Resistance. Why would it do that? Quite simply because they are being steadily whittled away and the next target could be Iran itself.
Tehran has no hope of being able to resist a full-on Israeli assault on its homeland as the targeted degradation of its military and defence industrial facilities a few days ago amply illustrates. At some point Netanyahu will be minded to stop attacking the monkeys and deal directly with the organ grinder.
The toppling of the theocratic regime in Tehran would not displease much of the Iranian population which longs for a return to less mediaeval government. And it’s long overdue. So the Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his cronies have some thinking to do, and quickly.
The big “unknown unknown” in all of this is, of course, what the position of the USA, Israel’s backer and Iran’s sworn enemy, might be. We’ll find out soon enough if there will be a change of occupancy, and a change of Middle East policy, in the White House in January of next year.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
