With the European elections approaching, the traditional leadership of France and Germany is under threat. Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Berlin on Tuesday, aimed at showcasing Franco-German unity, underscores the uncertainty about their continued dominance in the EU.
Macron’s objective is to “set the agenda” for Europe alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, both leaders are grappling with weak economies and poor domestic approval ratings.
Polls indicate that Macron’s Renaissance group could be significantly defeated by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, and Scholz’s Social Democrats may fall to third place behind far-right parties.
Their strained relationship and disagreements on key issues, such as energy policy and the war in Ukraine, weaken their political standing. Critics argue this undermines their authority in EU negotiations.
“Macron is going to take a serious beating in this election. The other leaders know this and sense weakness,” a senior conservative political operative in Brussels told Politico.
Macron’s hesitation to support Ursula von der Leyen for European Commission president, instead potentially backing Italy’s Mario Draghi, further complicates the situation. Markus Töns, a senior German Social Democrat, also suggested supporting Draghi, adding potential discord within Germany’s coalition.
Macron’s visit, marking the first state visit by a French leader in 24 years, includes proposals for doubling the EU budget for investment in industry and green projects. However, his ambitious plans have met with scepticism, especially given past lukewarm reactions from Berlin.
Other EU leaders, like Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Estonia’s Kaja Kallas, and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, are seizing the opportunity to increase their influence amid the weakening Franco-German axis. Meloni, poised to become a key player in the European elections, stated, “Italy is no longer following France and Germany, but leading the way.”
Meloni’s potential alliance with Marine Le Pen could reshape the European Parliament, challenging the traditional centre-right and centre-left coalition. “Today, there is room to build a different majority in the European Parliament and for different policies,” Meloni told Rai.
Le Pen echoed this sentiment, stating: “Now is the time to unite; it would be very beneficial. If we succeed, we can become the second-largest group in the European Parliament. We should not let this opportunity pass.”
As the European left faces potential defeats, the political landscape is set for significant shifts, with right-wing parties ready to challenge the status quo and reshape the future of the EU.
