Donald Trump’s likely victory in the 2024 US election is simply seismic. It is difficult to overstate how big a deal this is, given the forces against Trump, and what this means both domestically and internationally.
Trump round two will be Trump unleashed. Unable to run for a third term, this will be The Donald’s opportunity to go all-in, whether on China, immigration or trade.
If, as his detractors suggest, the GOP candidate will use the presidency to go after his enemies and silence his critics, this would be the time to do it.
Given also how fractured the US has become, I would anticipate significant civil disturbance in the weeks – and perhaps months – ahead.
On the global front, this could prove critical for the war in Ukraine. Trump has signalled his disquiet at US support for Kyiv. If he makes good on this, Moscow might be about to get some kind of settlement and resolution which crystallises its control over much of Ukraine.
Regarding China, if Trump does indeed follow through with more tariffs, an already-weakened Chinese economy may suffer even greater deprivations. Beijing knows it has a window of opportunity to move on Taiwan and that window may have just gotten narrower. Will Trump aid the island democracy if push comes to shove? Only time will tell.
This is also a moment of truth for NATO and the Western alliance more broadly as the returning President will likely signal the need for allies to pull more of their weight, including Britain. Everything Trump did in round one is likely to be augmented in round two. That goes for the domestic front as well.
On mass immigration, can we expect the border with Mexico not only to tighten, but for Trump to use all the powers of the presidency to directly punish the Mexican government if it doesn’t stem the flow of migrants?
Certainly this is what his supporters want. But again, given how divided America has become, we cannot not only discount significant pushback politically but the prospect of full-blown civil strife in the coming weeks and months.
Trump appears to have benefitted from an increase in white and older voters, as well as a drop off in Latino voters, compared to 2020. This runs contrary to America’s demographic trajectory but may indicate how galvanised his base was versus an unheeded and under-the-radar ambivalence towards Kamala Harris. Expect the Democratic introspection to begin.
To be clear, none of this alters the demographic trendlines for America, which is why Trump and his supporters may be even more inclined to roll the dice and take the most significant measures in this second and final term.
On the economic front, Trump’s tax policies – not least for business – will likely win hearts and minds in corporate America. But any ensuing chaos caused by civil strife could undermine what would otherwise be serious economic wins.
Top line – this is a colossal moment for a country coming to terms with the rise of China, as well as its own racial and cultural changes. Will this be the last hurrah of the old America or a U-turn of the most unprecedented proportions? Whatever else, November 5-6, 2024 will surely go down as a major moment in world history.
