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Donald Trump in US election polls surge as voters trust him to revive COVID-19 hit economy

Donald Trump in US election polls surge as voters trust him to revive COVID-19 hit economy

Donald Trump in US election polls surge as voters trust him to revive COVID-19 hit economy (Image: Getty)

The third in a series of monthly Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express polls has given President Trump a surprise lead over his Democrat rival of 48 percent to 46 percent, his clearest lead yet.

Crucially, President Trump has a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the swing states Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which would put him back in the White House with an electoral college tally of 309 to Biden’s 229.

Specifically, in Florida Trump has a 47 to 45 point lead, Minnesota (where the black lives matters protests began) a 46/45 lead, and New Hampshire a 46/43 lead.

The polling suggests Mr Trump is emerging as the race leader because of a belief he is best in handling the economy. 

With a third of voters putting the economy as the top election issue and 66 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back after coronavirus, voters believe that Trump is better for the economy by 57 percent to 43 percent.

Writing for the Sunday Express, Director of the Democracy Institute Patrick Basham suggested that the Biden campaign may have “reached its high water mark”.

He said: “Although Biden remains in a competitive race with Donald Trump, and may well do so until election day, his support isn’t growing. And, tellingly, almost all of the issues that matter most to voters are trending in President Trump’s favour.

“More Americans are concerned about the economy and keeping their current, or getting a new, job. They don’t especially blame Trump for the lockdown-induced economic contraction, and they think he’ll do a better job of righting the economic ship than Biden.”

But while most polls have a clear lead for Biden following criticism of President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the Democracy Institute poll again shows that Trump is winning from “shy voters” who do not want to tell people they are voting for him.

Director of the Democracy Institute Patrick Basham suggested that the Biden campaign may have 'reached its high water mark'

Director of the Democracy Institute Patrick Basham suggested that the Biden campaign may have ‘reached its high water mark’ (Image: Getty)

According to the poll 71 percent of Trump voters are “shy” to admit it compared to 66 percent a month ago.

However, 79 percent of Trump voters are enthusiastic about their candidate compared to just 41 percent of Biden voters, two points lower than a month ago.

Meanwhile, only 4 percent of Trump voters believe they could change their mind while 10 percent of Biden voters could switch.

Concerns that Mr Biden may be suffering from the early stages of dementia are also increasingly boosting Donald Trump’s chances of victory in the Presidential election, a new poll has revealed.

According to this month’s poll 58 percent believe Mr Biden is suffering from cognitive decline compared to 55 percent last month.

More worryingly for the former Vice President and Senator, is that 48 percent are less likely to vote for him as a result compared to 40 percent a month ago.

This follows a series of public missteps by Mr Biden, 77, has stumbled with his words, mangled names and concepts and appeared to drift off subject.

It means that hsi choice of vice president running mate due shortly could be crucial in the final outcome of the election, especially if he picks a candidate from the left.

The importance of the presidential debates is underlined by the fact that 62 percent to 38 percent believe Trump will win the first one.

The one issue that continues to bug President Trump is his handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Concerns that Mr Biden may be suffering from the early stages of dementia are also increasingly boosting Donald Trump’s chances of victory

Concerns that Mr Biden may be suffering from the early stages of dementia are also increasingly boosting Donald Trump’s chances of victory (Image: Getty)

According to the poll one in five Americans see it as the top election issue putting it level with education and behind the economy.

However, 49 percent disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the crisis while only 41 percent approve.

Nevertheless 64 percent support Mr Trump’s calls for schools to reopen soon in the wake of the crisis.

According to political analyst Nick Wood, former director of communications for the Conservative Party, international evidence suggests that the handling of the coronavirus is making or breaking ruling parties in elections. 

He said: “Boris Johnson’s calling of the early election in December 2019 may have been a masterstroke in more ways than one

“With a stable majority and five years in power, Boris won’t be tested at the polls on his handling of the pandemic

“Most other world leaders do not have that luxury – as coronavirus has been influencing elections throughout 2020.”

In French municipal elections in March and June, President Macron’s party received a huge defeat with his handling of the coronavirus pandemic seen as a major factor.

According to a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll 43 percent thought the country was not ready for the pandemic.

But in South Korea, the government was resoundingly reelected in April 2020, after huge public support for the government’s handling of coronavirus. 

South Korea is considered one of the global leaders in containing the pandemic and has arguably the world’s leading testing and  tracking system.

Mr Wood said: “This offers an insight into future elections in the time of COVID: most notably the US election due on November 3, and others such as Georgia  in October and New Zealand in September.

“For example, parliamentary elections in Georgia in October are likely to reward the Georgian Government’s handling of the crisis. Georgia has one of the lowest COVID rates in the world, with only 15 deaths, and has been praised by the WHO, US, EU and others. 

“ The government banned flights from China as early as January, and locked down quickly and effectively early on in the pandemic, with the government providing support for businesses and employees to survive the economic shock. The economy has now re-opened, and the country is welcoming foreign tourists for its summer season.

“The incumbent Georgian Dream party is ahead in polling for the October Parliamentary elections and deserves to be rewarded for its competent handling of COVID-19, just as South Korea’s government was rewarded.

“Similarly, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has gained praise for her response to COVID-19, and is running for re-elected in September. She is expected to win, also, thanks to public confidence in her government’s crisis management.”

Mr Biden, 77, has stumbled with his words, mangled names and concepts and appeared to drift off subject

Mr Biden, 77, has stumbled with his words, mangled names and concepts and appeared to drift off subject (Image: Getty)

Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express poll results

National Popular Vote

  • Trump = 48%

  • Biden = 46%

  • Undecided = 6% 


  • White voters: Trump = 53%   Biden = 46% 

  • Black: Trump 20%    Biden = 77% 

  • Hispanic: Trump 38%    Biden = 51% 

 

Battleground States – Popular Vote 

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin 

  • Trump = 48%

  • Biden = 43%

  • Undecided = 9% 

Florida – Popular Vote

  • Trump = 47%

  • Biden = 45%

  • Undecided = 8%

Minnesota – Popular Vote

  • Trump = 46%

  • Biden = 45%

  • Undecided = 9%

New Hampshire – Popular Vote

  • Trump = 46%

  • Biden = 43%

  • Undecided = 11%

President Trump has a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the swing states Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

President Trump has a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the swing states Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (Image: Getty)

Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results)

270 needed to win

Enthusiasm Gap?

Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”

  • Trump voters = 79%

  • Biden voters = 41%

Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?

Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?”

  • Trump voters: Yes = 4%

  • Biden voters: Yes = 10%

 

‘Shy’ Trump Vote? 

Questions to Undecided Voters

Q “Does a relative, friend, or coworker plan to vote for Trump?”

Q “Will President Trump be reelected?”

Q “Which candidate will win the first presidential debate?”

Question to All Voters 

Q “Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?”

  • Trump voters: Yes = 27%

  • Biden voters: Yes = 83%

Q “Which candidate will win the first presidential debate?”

Trump’s National Job Approval

  • Approve = 50%

  • Disapprove = 48%

Party ID

  • Republican = 84%

  • Democrat = 25%

  • Independent = 44%

Race/ethnicity

  • White = 57%

  • Black = 40%

  • Hispanic = 43%

Gender

Religion

  • Evangelical = 90%

  • Protestant = 59%

  • Catholic = 61%

  • Jewish = 32%

  • Atheist = 12%

Only 4 percent of Trump voters believe they could change their mind

Only 4 percent of Trump voters believe they could change their mind (Image: Getty)

Age

  • 65 years & over = 55%

  • 45-64 years = 62%

  • 30-44 years = 43%

  • 18-29 years = 37%

Marital Status

Policy

Q “Which issue is most important to you?”

Economy

Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?”

Q “Which candidate do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?”

Pandemic 

Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”

  • Approve = 41%

  • Disapprove = 49%

 Q “Will Trump or Biden do a better job of standing up to China?” 

Education 

Q “Do you want your local school to re-open soon?”

Race

Black Lives Matter

Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”

  • Black Lives Matter = 27%

  • All Lives Matter = 73%

Biden’s Running Mate

Q “Would Joe Biden’s selection of an African American running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?”

  • More likely 15%

  • Less likely 8%

  • No difference 77%

 Monuments / Statues

Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the removal of historic monuments and statues because certain individuals or groups find them offensive?”

  • Approve 15%

  • Disapprove 77%

  • Don’t Know 8%

Policing / Law & Order

 Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?” 

  • Too tough 25%

  • Just right 27%

  • Not tough enough 48%

Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?” 

  • Approve = 61%

  • Disapprove = 39%

Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”

Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?” 

Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?” 

The one issue that continues to bug President Trump is his handling of the coronavirus crisis

The one issue that continues to bug President Trump is his handling of the coronavirus crisis (Image: Getty)

Candidate Characteristics 

Biden’s Mental Acuity

Q “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?” 

  • Yes 58%

  • No 40%

  • Don’t know 2%

Q “Does your opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity make you more or less likely to vote for him?”

  • More likely 18%

  • Less likely 48%

  • No difference 34%

Leadership

Q “Is Trump/Biden a strong leader?”

Q “Is Trump/Biden a consensus builder?”

Q “Is Donald Trump a populist?”

Q “Is Joe Biden an establishment politician?”

Personal Trait 

Q “Is Trump/Biden too old to be president?”

Q “Is Trump/Biden a likeable person?”



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