The fact the US presidential election is going right down to the wire, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump practically neck and neck is sending a very clear message to China.
Demographically, culturally and politically, Beijing’s geostrategic rival is split down the middle. Long divided racially, America is now splintering, with sharp political divides along class, gender and geographic lines.
That hardly bodes well for the US if and when China has a crack at Taiwan — a geopolitical inevitability if the CCP makes good on its commitment to equal US dominance in Asia and beyond — and Washington has to make the ultimate decision.
True, this will be a decision taken by whoever is President, along with their military chiefs and advisers, but — as seen in past US military engagements, such as Vietnam — to truly succeed, the country needs to be with the military.
Any war involving China will be a total war, considering the monumental economic impact, the possibility of direct strikes on the US mainland, as well as the possibility of restarting the draft, something not seen since Vietnam.
For my money, if push came to shove, both Harris and Trump would become China hawks, partly because both would be advised by the same top brass and both would have access to the same intel.
This intel – apart from anything else – would make crystal clear that allowing China to take Taiwan and crack the ‘first island chain’ would end up pushing the US out of Asia, with all the defence (and economic) ramifications this would bring.
Polling suggests Republicans tend to be more hawkish on China, but – given how divided the US now is – the chances are that a decision taken by either Harris or Trump will see support fall along America’s pre-existing tribal political lines.
Meaning that voters will be more or less likely to back a deployment depending on whether they backed the President in question in the first place (note how Dems give President Joe Biden a pass if he does something tough on the border but not Trump).
Given also how almost any executive decision taken today can fast generate a culture wars angle (e.g. Trump applying tariffs is bad because Trump is doing it rather than the other guy) it is likely voters will attach to any wartime decision perspectives informed by their own pre-existing biases.
America’s tribalism is all vibes and that gives Beijing hope. Faced with an enemy so divided, the CCP knows it can play a long game (as Russia is in Ukraine) and can play different sides within the US off against one another.
Make no mistake, China must take over Taiwan to achieve its longstanding goal of geopolitical parity with America, and Beijing has a window of opportunity closing around 2027-2028, by which point US and allied weapons stockpiles will be far stronger post-Ukraine.
But if CCP leader Xi Jinping cannot afford the loss of face of not blockading or invading Taiwan (and frankly the worse the Chinese economy gets, the less incentive he has to hold back), the US can also not afford Taiwan becoming a fixed Chinese aircraft carrier projecting power into the Pacific.
The US election right now is going down to the wire. One candidate could still win the popular vote but lose the electoral college (something the Harris team is painfully aware of), which will augment the deep divisions which now beset the US.
Whatever advantages America has, China has taken note of this gigantic Achilles’ Heel on the American side. No country can fight all out war if it is at war with itself, and while China can to some extent impose conformity on its people, the US cannot.
The more divided and close this election is, the worse any post-election divisions could be. Whoever wins this November, China already thinks it has scored a major victory.
