Far-right leader Marine le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has surged ahead in a poll, 15 points ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance. The daily European elections tracking poll by IFOP for Le Figaro puts RN on 32.5 percent and Renaissance on a shocking low 17.5 percent, in a nightmare for the French President.
Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group, commented: “Such a result on June 9 could be calamitous for President Emmanuel Macron.”
Mr Rahman, sharing his analysis on X of the polling published on Wednesday (April 17), said: “The lead candidate for Macron’s centrist list Renew, the relatively unknown Valérie Heyer, dropped to her lowest projected score – 17.5 percent – since the tracking poll began two weeks ago. The Lepennist list, led by her Number 2, Jordan Bardella, was stable on 32.5 percent.
“Does it matter? Yes, it does. European Union elections in France are usually bad for sitting governments but this is the only ‘mid-term’ national election before the next Presidential poll in 2027. A 10 point lead or more for the Far Right would leave Macron enfeebled for the last three years of his mandate.”
He added that such a result would “almost certainly” produce a flurry of censure motions in France’s National Assembly in June and July, which would threaten to bring down Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s government.
Macron campaign spokesman, Clément Beaune, admitted the polling was “difficult” but said the campaigning for the European elections was just beginning, according to Mr Rahman, who added “Maybe”.
RN is focusing its campaign on immigration. Mr Bardella, who is president of RN, told the party’s first campaign rally in Marseille in March that the elections on June 9 would be a referendum “against being submerged by migrants”.
He told supporters it was up to the French people to decide who is allowed to enter France and who is not, adding: With us, France will protect its borders.”
France’s far-right is benefitting from rising immigration, discontent among farmers about red tape and a cost-of-living crisis.
Ms le Pen has described Mr Macron as a president under siege and hit out at her arch rival, after he said the country’s troops being deployed to Ukraine could not be ruled out.
Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán today urged voters to reject mainstream political parties in the European Union elections for their failure of leadership and said Ukraine must never be allowed to join the bloc or NATO.
Mr Orbán, keynote speaker at a gathering in Brussels of international Far Right politicians and supporters, railed against EU climate policy and agriculture rules which he said have left farmers in great difficulty. He also said Europe’s “migration crisis” is bigger than ever.
A self-proclaimed “illiberal democrat”, Mr Orbán took aim at the EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, for using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to attack his country. He said: “The bureaucrats in Brussels tried to suffocate Hungary financially.”
The commission has denied Hungary access to billions of euros amid concerns about democratic backsliding in the country and the possible mismanagement of EU money.
The Hungarian leader, who has been in office since 2010, also underlined the failure of EU sanctions to stop the war in Ukraine. Addressing the fact he’s often described in the media as a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr Orbán said: “My mother is not happy.”
He said Hungary’s biggest concern is it does not want to share a common border with Russia again and that Ukraine should not be allowed to join the EU and NATO. He said: “Guys, you have to understand that you are a buffer zone country. You can’t change your house number.”
It also emerged on Wednesday that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is at the forefront of European Union citizens’ minds, with defence and security seen as key campaign issues ahead of the elections.
A study published today shows that at a national level, the EU’s defence and security is mentioned first in nine countries, in contrast with sentiments five years ago when the last EU Parliament elections were held.
The latest edition of the EU Parliament’s Eurobarometer said: “The EU’s defence and security was far from a prominent topic in 2019, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.”
A collection of opinion surveys across the 27 EU nations, the report showed defence and security — alongside the economy and jobs — now come in third place (31 percent) behind poverty and social exclusion (33 percent) and public health (32 percent). Climate change and the future of Europe follow closely.
