Images of packed hospital waiting rooms in China have sparked alarm on social media amid reports of surging respiratory virus infections.
The memory of similar reports in the early days of the Covid pandemic is still fresh for many – but how worried should we be? Experts have weighed in on the outbreak.
What’s happening in China?
Pressure on China’s healthcare system is thought to be driven by a virus called human metapneumovirus (hMPV) that causes flu or cold-like symptoms, as well as other typical winter viruses including flu.
Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said hMPV was “one of the many viruses which circulate in the winter and add to the winter pressures on the NHS”.
He explained: “The reports of respiratory infections in China in the past few days appear to be attributed to both influenza and this human metapneumovirus, which is rather similar to the situation in the UK this week.”
What is human metapneumovirus?
hMPV is a common cause of respiratory tract infections. Symptoms are typically mild and similar to a cold of the flu, although it can cause more serious illness in babies and the elderly.
Professor Paul Hunter, an expert in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said almost every child would have at least one infection with hMPV by their fifth birthday.
He added: “In England we have seen a fairly marked increase in recent weeks, so far the peak percentage positivity is a little over what it was this time last year so no major difference to usual, unless infections positivity rates continue to increase in coming weeks.”
There aren’t any antiviral medications for hMPV but most people can manage their symptoms at home.
Could hMPV cause another pandemic?
Dr Andrew Catchpole, chief scientific officer at challenge trial and laboratory services company hVIVO, said rates of serious hMPV “may be higher in China than what we would expect in a normal year”.
More information is needed to understand whether the circulating strain was different from previous ones he said, but there is no need to panic.
He added: “Whilst hMPV does mutate and change over time with new strains emerging, it is not a virus that we consider to have pandemic potential.
“This is because the changes in hMPV are gradual and based on previously circulating strains. Pandemics occur when a totally new virus enters the human population, like for Covid-19.
“Or in the case of influenza, when a totally new variant of the virus enters the human population by combination with a human version of the virus with that of an animal version of the virus from what is known as the animal reservoir.”
Dr Catchpole explained that there was “no such animal reservoir of related viruses known for hMPV”.
He added: “This means that even if the hMPV in China currently is a new variant of the virus, it is highly likely to be significantly related to previously circulating hMPV strains such that there will be some level of pre-existing immunity from exposure to related viruses previously, which will significantly reduce the disease burden in healthy people. “
How worried should we be?
Respiratory expert Professor Peter Openshaw and his colleague Dr Claudia Efstathiou of Imperial College London said that, like other countries including the UK, China often experiences a surge of several winter viruses which can put pressure on healthcare services.
They added: “More information is always helpful, but there is no evidence so far that what’s being seen in China is much different from what’s being seen in Europe.
“It seems that it’s the summation of several common winter viral infections rather than a new or unknown virus.”
