COMMENT: Why the West is losing influence in the Global South

IT is significant that one of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his presidential election victory was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The two leaders share a deep affinity for one another, and the President-elect was keen to stress how ”the whole world loves PM Modi”, that India is “a magnificent country” and PM Modi is a “magnificent man”.

While both the US and India share a mutual concern over Chinese hegemony, however, a strong relationship between the two political ‘strongmen” may also begin to address a more fundamental issue affecting the West – its loss of influence in the Global South.

Take a look at any major UN resolution and the lines are clear-cut. Whether it’s Ukraine or Israel, Western democracies are increasingly finding themselves outnumbered by an increasing harmony between so-called developing and non-Western nations.

There are a myriad of reasons for this.

Neglect by Western governments burdened by complex domestic challenges has left vacuums across the Global South which strategic challengers such as Russia, China and Iran are only too keen to fill.

This was epitomised by former US President Joe Biden’s regrettable decision to take Trump’s Afghan withdrawal plan to the extreme, and abandon the country without leaving so much as a single battalion and base to act as a lilypad for the return of more troops should President Ashraf Ghani’s government became threatened by a Taliban resurgence. Which of course, it was.

In Africa, France’s withdrawal from Mali and the Sahel after a 13-year war against Jihadists not only ended a parallel UN mission, but also ushered Russian Wagner troops.

From its base in Libya, where some 2,000 former Wagner troops now working directly for Moscow as part of Vladimir Putin’s “Expeditionary Corps”, Russia is exerting its influence by providing autocracies with “regime survival packages” – offering security in return for unfettered access to mineral resources such as gold, diamonds, uranium, cobalt, nickel, chromium.

That there was no hint of irony last year when Russian foreign secretary Sergey Lavrov addressed the UN to tell the Global South that the West must refrain from “their neocolonial practices of mining the entire world for their benefit” only shows the extent to which the West is allowing it to lead the narrative.

Despite a growing backlash from African nations finding themselves in debt traps, China’s offering of giant infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road ​Initiative continues to offer Beijing tangible influence.

While publicly claiming not to interfere with the internal politics of host states, the CCP has escalated its training of African party and government officials as part of Xi Jinping’s “new model of party-to-party relations.”

The Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Leadership School, which was launched in 2022, trains ruling party members from the Former Liberation Movements of Southern Africa (FLMSA) coalition—Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.

By contrast, Western aid is becoming more problematic,

Much is given to African governments without any clear audit trail as to how it is used, while non-government programmes are viewed as “colonial”

Certainly, it is difficult for domestic economies to grow when they are flooded with free aid. Every free pair of shoes sent to Africa threatens to put an African show maker out of business.

In 2016 Rwanda banned the import of secondhand clothing in 2016 to boost its domestic textile industry, create jobs and protect the dignity of its people.

That followed an imposition of tariffs on second-hand clothing imports which increased the value of its home-grown textile industry from £5m to £7m.

This paternalism was reflected in last week’s US elections.

One of the reasons why Donald Trump won 42 per cent of the Latino vote stems from Kamala Harris’ instance on treating Hispanics as an oppressed demographic in need of protection.

In choosing Trump – and, by the way, his tough stance in illegal migration – Latinos rejected the characterisation by Democrats that they were victims of society, and embraced policies that would help them to thrive.

It also extends to the liberal media.

When it came to the recent diplomatic clash between Canada and India over the death of Hardeep Singh Nijjar -for which India stands accused – Western media outlets chose to paint the Sikh activist as a ”‘temple leader” and leading light of his community.

Seldom was the fact that he was on no-fly list in the US and Canada with an Interpol red corner notice against him ,or the fact that he initially entered Canada on a fake passport with a fake identity and went on to lead a terror group called Khalistan Tiger Force and a recruiting and training camp in Mission Hills, BC, mentioned.

It is bad enough that Justin Trudeau’s national security advisor deliberately leaked information alleging India’s role in Nijjar’s murder to the Washington Post, to garner US support in the diplomatic tussle

But the unquestioning willingness by reporters Greg Miller and Gary Shih to accept it at face value arguably demonstrates a left wing distrust of populist Modi

Just last week the Post ran an op-ed in which it quoted German political scientist Jan-Werner Müller who has accused Trump of being “ similar to far-right populists like Narendra Modi and Viktor Orban who claim uniquely to represent the people, who delegitimise their political opponents as traitors, and who incite hatred against already vulnerable minorities.”

That Justin Trudeau – who is now languishing some 19 points behind his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievr with a mere 33 per cent approva rating – has become reliant on the Sikh vote is manifestly apparent in the different way in which authorities treat Hindus and Sikhs.

When violence reputed at a Hindu Temple in the Canadian city of Brampton, it was condemned by Justin Trudeau as “unacceptable”, in marked difference to the tolerant approach with which the authorities have met radical Sikh protests calling for violence against Hindus and the Indian state,

After Australia Today aired a joint press conference with Indian external affairs minister H.E S Jaishankar and his counterpart Penny Wong on the Nijjar issue , executives complained that the platform was blocked on Canadian Facebook in a clear act of ‘censorship”- arguing that Trudeau trampled on Canadian values of freedom and democracy when it suited him.

Canada’s foreign ministry blamed Meta for the issue.

Reuters was accused of adopting a similar approach when a court in Delhi prevented the publication of a story by Raphael Satter which accused that Indian Edtech firm Appin of elicit hacking activities.

Appin co-founder, Rajat Khare strongly denied the allegations, telling Reuters that he was in the business of defending against cyberattacks, not perpetuating them.

Satter’s coverage of Indian affairs has been problematic for authorities who dispute many of his stories, and he is alleged to have offered jobs to key witnesses (a claim he denies).

While he stands by his stories, Indian authorities maintain they cast into question the due diligence exerted by bureau chiefs.

The injunction was finally lifted last month, allowing Reuters to publish the story, though the lawsuit remains pending,

Those of us fortunate enough to work for the fourth estate have a responsibly to reject stereotypes.

Nowhere is this more apparent than in Africa, where governments have long faced an unfair penalty of higher interest rates due to entrenched perceptions that governments are risky borrowers – despite evidence that continental default rates are lower than those of other regions.

This so-called “prejudice premium” is reckoned to be costing the continent £3.2bn annual debt interest payments.

The major studios also have a case to answer.

Too often, Southeast Asia is utilised for its exotic and tropical locales, exploited as nothing more than a pretty backdrop by which non-ASEAN characters unravel the plot.

Possibly one of the biggest films set in an South East Asian nation is 2018’s Crazy Rich Asians, which caused a sensation with its larger-than-life depictions of the Singaporean Chinese ultra-rich elite. But Singaporean representation was limited to the setting, and not much depicted the typical lifestyle of an average Singaporean.

As the self-proclaimed leader of the Global South, India is keenly placed to help bridge the growing gap with the West, and a strong relationship with a transactional Trump may help to offset growing Russian and Chinese influence.

Time will only tell whether Britain’s PM Sir Keir Starmer , whose Labour Party is behoven to the Muslim vote, will recognise this too as the UK strives for its trade deal with India.

In the meantime, a different approach to the Global South is needed by all Western governments if they hope to recapture any semblance of credibility.