German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a vote of no confidence this afternoon and if he loses it it will pave the way for a snap election next year.
A majority of the 733 lawmakers in the Bundestag are expected to express a lack of confidence in the Chancellor.
However, far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) have the power to prevent the motion passing as planned, thwarting Scholz’s plans for an early election next year.
The decision to call a vote of no confidence was made after the governing three-way coaltion collapsed in November, after Scholz fired the Finance Minister from the Free Democratic Party. That saw the Free Democrats leave the coalition, with just the Greens and Scholz’s SDP in charge of a minority government.
The quirks of the German system means that Scholz actually called the vote of confidence in himself. The country’s political infrastructure is designed to minimise instability during crises, in order to prevent a situation unfolding akin to one which saw the Nazis take control in the 1930s.
As such, Scholz will ask lawmakers if it has confidence in him, and assuming they do not, the next step will be an election in the New Year.
Despite the expectation being that Scholz will indeed lose the vote and the election will be triggered, the AfD may vote tactically, stymying the process.
The AfD have competing incentives to vote for and against the motion. On one hand, the party is polling second nationally, so if the election runs along the lines of the polls, it will be the largest opposition party in the post-election Bundestag.
However, some AfD lawmakers, according to Politico, have said that they will vote in favour of Scholz. They fear that if an election is called for the New Year, then the likely winners will be the Christian Democrats, led by Friedrich Merz.
Merz is a vocal supporter of Ukraine, and would be expected to buttress Germany’s backing of Kyiv – something the AfD strongly opposes.
Jürgen Pohl told Politico: “I do not want to see Mr Merz in a position of responsibility under any circumstances.
The motion of no confidence is expected to be held at 2:30pm GMT.
