One thing is apparent through 11 weeks of the 2024 season: the Jets will be in the market for a long-term quarterback solution next offseason.
Gang Green acquired Aaron Rodgers in April 2023 hoping he could guide the team to a second Lombardi Trophy (and first since 1969). Not only has that not happened, but the Jets have reached unmitigated disaster levels with Rodgers under center.
A season after tearing his Achilles, Rodgers returned, but his play from when he was a four-time MVP with the Packers has not. The Jets currently have a 3-8 record. This is after owner Woody Johnson fired Robert Saleh, interim coach Jeff Ulbrich demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett from play-calling duties and acquired star wide receiver Davante Adams.
Now, as the Jets are close to extending the longest playoff drought in North American sports to 14 seasons, what does the future hold for the Jets at quarterback and Rodgers himself?
It’s time to examine what the Jets could look like in 2025 at this critical position.
UNLIKELY RODGERS RETURNS NEXT SEASON
Tom Brady did the unthinkable when he was with the Patriots and Buccaneers by playing well into his 40s. He even won a Super Bowl at age 43 when he was in Tampa Bay after the 2020 season.
But as we’ve seen with Rodgers this season, there is only one Brady. After returning from his Achilles injury, Rodgers looks like a player about to turn 41 on Dec. 2.
Not only are his accuracy and mobility not the same, but Rodgers has happy feet in the pocket and doesn’t even throw the ball down the field anymore, which was his strength for over a decade. Now, it seems like his goal is to avoid hits from defensive linemen.
Rodgers told reporters last week that he would like to play in 2025. The problem is, whether Rodgers returns for a third season with the Jets isn’t solely his decision.
The Jets will have a new general manager and a new coach next season. Johnson fired Saleh on Oct. 8, and unless a miracle happens, Ulbrich will not return. Johnson also fired Jets general manager Joe Douglas on Tuesday after five-plus seasons with the organization.
After the Jets’ ugly September loss to the Broncos, Johnson floated the idea of benching Rodgers, according to The Athletic. Of course, Rodgers continues to start for the Jets, but now his future with the team is in serious doubt, according to sources.
Rodgers is due $23.5 million in 2025, the final year of the restructured three-year deal he signed in the summer of 2023. If the Jets were to release Rodgers or if he retires, they would lose $25.5 million of cap space and have a dead cap hit of $49 million.
Gang Green could designate Rodgers as a post-June 1 cut, spreading the money out and saving the team $9.5 million against the 2025 cap. But if the Jets are going to start rebuilding, it might be better to take the entire cap hit next season and start fresh in 2026.
Changes to the Jets organization are inevitable, and that includes Rodgers. At this point, it is hard to envision any scenario in which Rodgers returns to the Jets.
Either Rodgers will ultimately walk away from football altogether, or the Jets will release him, and he could see what the free agent market looks like for an aging 41-year-old.
Last May, Rodgers said, “If I don’t do what I know I’m capable of doing, we’re all probably going to be out of here.”
Turns out that Rodgers was correct and is the final domino set to fall.
WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS IF RODGERS IS GONE?
If Rodgers decides to retire or the Jets release him, they could choose to go in several directions. One would be to keep veteran Tyrod Taylor and rookie fifth-round pick Jordan Travis on the roster and punt on the 2025 season while resolving their salary cap situation.
Gang Green is projected to have $33.9 million of cap space next offseason. However, cutting Rodgers and how they decide to split the cap hit will factor into that.
Releasing Rodgers would reduce the Jets cap room by $25.5 million. So, the Jets would be wise to take their medicine next season and build a good enough team to compete in 2026.
If the Jets decide not to go that route, they could hit the free-agent market. But the pickings are slim, including Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold and Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson.
Darnold would be the perfect bridge for the Jets. But it’s unlikely he would want to return to the place where they gave up on him after three seasons (2018-20) to ultimately draft Zach Wilson in 2021.
Russell Wilson is currently having success for the AFC North-leading Steelers (8-2) and likely wants to return next season.
Other free-agent quarterbacks include Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett, Jameis Winston, Joe Flacco and Mac Jones.
DRAFTING A QUARTERBACK
Assuming the Jets want to go the young route and target one of the prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft, but that could also be challenging. Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders are the only consensus first-round quarterback prospects.
If the draft were held today, the Jets would select seventh, meaning Ward or Sanders probably wouldn’t be available with QB-needy teams like the Titans, Browns, Giants, and Raiders in front of them.
In that case, quarterback draft options could include LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State’s Drew Allar. This is Nussmeier’s first season as the Tigers’ starter after the Commanders selected Jayden Daniels second overall.
Turnovers have been a massive issue for Nussmeier this season (11 interceptions in 10 games). However, he has completed 62.1% of his passes and thrown for 22 touchdowns.
“A very limited sample size,” ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid told the Daily News about Nussmeier. “He does a lot of the little things right. He’s very poised, he can navigate the pocket really well, he can anticipate, and his footwork is good.
“But his sample size is so small that we haven’t seen him face a whole bunch of adversity. We saw it against Texas A&M. That was really the first time that where he was knocked off schedule and faced a lot of adversity and he didn’t play well after throwing three interceptions.
“The sample size is really holding me back from calling him a first-round quarterback. I think he’s a Day 2 guy right now.”
Allar has all the physical tools scouts look for in a young signal-caller. He is 6-5, 235 pounds, with elite arm strength and the athleticism to move around in the pocket. In 10 games, Allar has passed for 2,253 yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions.
“Much more physically gifted,” Reid said about Allar compared to Nussmeier. “He’s one of the younger quarterback prospects in the draft. He’s 20-years-old.
“He hasn’t been consistent outside of this year, but he is playing better.”
