The most reliable predictor of a Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl run might not be in any analytics model. It’s in the Mahomes family group chat.
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On Tuesday, Patrick and Brittany Mahomes announced they’re expecting their fourth child. That same afternoon, the Chiefs traded for wide receiver Josh Downs from the Colts. The pregnancy keeps a quirky Super Bowl trend alive, while the trade gives bettors a real reason to consider Kansas City, especially with the odds unchanged.
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The baby bump trend
Every time Brittany has been pregnant during a season, the Chiefs have played in the Super Bowl.
In 2020, she was pregnant with Sterling, and Kansas City reached Super Bowl LV. In 2022, Bronze was born in November, and the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. In 2024, she was pregnant with Golden, and they made Super Bowl LIX.
That’s three pregnancies and three Super Bowl trips. Mahomes leaned into it Wednesday, joking that he hopes the trend holds.
Is it a coincidence? Obviously. The Chiefs also won a title in 2023 without one. But I’ve bet on worse reasons than a three-for-three family streak.
Travis Kelce’s teammate and close friend Patrick Mahomes married his now-wife Brittany in March 2022 in a private ceremony in Maui, Hawaii. (Jamie Squire)
The real reason: Josh Downs fixes a problem
Now for the part that actually holds up.
Kansas City sent 2027 fourth- and fifth-round picks to Indianapolis for Downs and a seventh. That’s a bargain for a 24-year-old receiver who caught 72 passes for 803 yards in 2024. He has 33 catches for 354 yards in nine games this year on a Colts offense that wasn’t feeding him.
The timing matters more than the numbers. Rashee Rice has been dealing with a hamstring injury all season. Xavier Worthy left Sunday’s 35-12 win over the Jets with a hamstring injury of his own and is day-to-day. Mahomes was down to whoever was healthy.
Downs is a reliable slot target who gets open fast. That’s exactly what a quarterback with 2,037 yards, 14 touchdowns and four picks needs while his top two receivers are banged up.
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Wide receiver Josh Downs #12 of the Kansas City Chiefs talks to the media during practice and media availability at The University of Kansas Hospital Arrowhead Training Complex on Nov. 11, 2026, in Kansas City, Mo. (Getty Images)
The market didn’t move
Downs arrived, and the Chiefs’ odds stayed exactly where they were.
Kansas City is 6-2, the defense ranks eighth in EPA per play, and the quarterback has played in five Super Bowls in his first decade. The books still have the Chiefs third in the AFC, behind Buffalo and Jacksonville.
That’s the opening. The public sees a team chasing Denver in the AFC West and treats the Chiefs as a step behind. I see a team that just plugged its biggest hole for two mid-round picks.
The division is the one real knock. Denver is 7-2 and holds the West lead, and the Chiefs lost in Denver in Week 8. But you don’t need a division title to win a conference. Mahomes has made a career out of January.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and strong safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) celebrate after beating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium on February 2, 2020, in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports)
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The pick
The baby trend is the fun part, and Downs is the reason. A healthy Chiefs offense with Mahomes under center doesn’t stay at +550 for long.
Give me the Chiefs to win the AFC (+550), and let the newest baby Mahomes do the rest.